Tour Outsider

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2010-03-09T06:39:00.001-07:00

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Honda Classic

2010-03-02T18:11:00.002-07:00

This week the US PGA Tour moves to the east coast to start the Florida swing with the Honda Classic.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Honda Classic.

#	Player	CLi
1	Ernie Els	5.35
2	Y.E. Yang	6.45
3	Rory McIlroy	10.25
4	Robert Allenby	10.55
5	Camilo Villegas	12.45
6	Padraig Harrington	13.50
7	Tim Clark	17.50
8	Scott Piercy	17.75
9	Steve Marino	19.85
10	Stephen Ames	22.45
11	John Rollins	24.65
12	Sergio Garcia	24.75
13	Paul Goydos	31.05
14	Mark Wilson	33.75
15	Spencer Levin	34.70

I am going to pick 5 players from the top 6 in the CLi rankings: Els, Yang, Allenby, Villegas, and Harrington. I skiped over McIlroy, as he is an unknown quantity in this tournament and the other 5 players in the top 6 tend to play well at the Honda. McIlroy could easily play well this week, but the 5 players I picked also have a great chance to play well.

Below are my 5 picks for the Honda Classic:

#	Player	CLi
1	Ernie Els	5.35
2	Y.E. Yang	6.45
3	Robert Allenby	10.55
4	Camilo Villegas	12.45
5	Padraig Harrington	13.50

Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

Robert Allenby
Y.E. Yang
Sergio Garcia
Ernie Els
Charles Howell III

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Honda Classic

We have 3 players in common this week: Allenby, Yang, and Els.

So far this year my picks have been doing rather well. However, I have lost the first 4 tournaments to Bolton. Hopefully this week I can turn it around.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Honda Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Waste Management Phoenix Open Review

2010-02-28T19:04:00.000-07:00

It is now time to review the picks for the Waste Management Phoenix Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

J.B. Holmes | 43 | $18,270
Matt Kuchar | 43 | $18,279
Phil Mickelson | 24 | $42,525
Kevin Na | 53 | $13,697
Brandt Snedeker | 43 | $18,270

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

Brian Gay | 68 | $12,180
Brandt Snedeker | 43 | $18,270
J.B. Holmes | 43 | $18,270
Zach Johnson | 24 | $42,525
Kevin Na | 53 | $13,697

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$111,032	$104,942	TO
Avg Rank	41.2	46.2	TO
Made Cut	5	5	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Total Earnings category was won by Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was won a draw.

This tournament overall was won by Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 1 win to the Tour Outsider, 4 wins to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

I finally got on the board this year. It would have been tough to go down the first 5 tournaments. 1 to 4 sounds a lot better than 0 to 5.

Even though I won, it would have been even nicer if Snedeker had held it together and won the tournament, as he was leading going into the final round. However, he shot 78 in the final round and finished 43rd.

Waste Management Phoenix Open

2010-02-24T08:38:00.003-07:00

This week the US PGA Tour is in Phoenix (Scottsdale), Arizona to play the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

#	Player	CLi
1	J.B. Holmes	5.45
2	Matt Kuchar	7.85
3	Phil Mickelson	9.25
4	Kevin Na	12.60
5	Brandt Snedeker	14.40
6	Ben Crane	14.95
7	Brian Gay	18.35
8	John Rollins	18.55
9	Briny Baird	26.65
10	Bubba Watson	30.05
11	Kevin Sutherland	30.90
12	Robert Allenby	30.95
13	Ryan Palmer	31.65
14	Zach Johnson	32.40
15	Geoff Ogilvy	32.80

I am going to go with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings: Holmes, Kuchar, Mickelson, Na, and Snedeker. The one question mark I have with these five is with Kuchar. He withdrew from the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am after the 1st round due to illness, which would bring into question how he is feeling this week. However, he did play last week at the Accenture Match Play. This fact mitigates some of my concern about picking him. Not including his WD at the AT&T, this year he has finished 2nd (Bob Hope), a 20th (Northern Trust), and a 17th (Accenture Match Play). As well, he finished 6th in this tournament (the WM Phoenix Open) last year.

Below are my 5 picks for the Waste Management Phoenix Open:

#	Player	CLi
1	J.B. Holmes	5.45
2	Matt Kuchar	7.85
3	Phil Mickelson	9.25
4	Kevin Na	12.60
5	Brandt Snedeker	14.40

Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

Brian Gay
Brandt Snedeker
J.B. Holmes
Zach Johnson
Kevin Na

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Waste Management Phoenix Open

We have 3 players in common this week: Snedeker, Holmes, and Na.

So far this year my picks have been doing rather well. However, I have lost the first 4 tournaments to Bolton. Hopefully this week I can turn it around.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Waste Management Phoenix Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Mayakoba Classic Review

2010-02-23T07:31:00.000-07:00

It is now time to review the picks for the Mayakoba Classic to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Steve Elkington | 76 (MC) | $0
John Merrick | 48 | $8,949
Heath Slocum | 13 | $67,500
Charles Howell III | 20 | $43,440
Kevin Stadler | 9 | $100,800

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

K.J. Choi | 20 | $43,440
Heath Slocum | 13 | $67,500
Mark Wilson | 28 | $22,440
Steve Elkington | 76 (MC) | $0
Kevin Stadler | 9 | $100,800

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$220,689	$234,180	TI
Avg Rank	33.2	29.2	TI
Made Cut	4	4	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won a draw.

This tournament overall was won by Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 0 wins to the Tour Outsider, 4 wins to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

Accenture Match Play Championship Review

2010-02-23T07:22:00.001-07:00

It is now time to review the picks for the Accenture Match Play Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Rory McIlroy | 17 | $95,000
Steve Stricker | 33 | $45,000
Ian Poulter | 1 | $1,400,000
Luke Donald | 9 | $140,000
Geoff Ogilvy | 17 | $95,000

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

Lee Westwood | 17 | $95,000
Steve Stricker | 33 | $45,000
Paul Casey | 2 | $850,000
Tim Clark | 9 | $140,000
Ian Poulter | 1 | $1,400,000

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$1,775,000	$2,530,000	TI
Avg Rank	15.4	12.4	TI
Made Cut	5	5	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won a draw.

This tournament overall was won by Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 0 wins to the Tour Outsider, 3 wins to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

Mayakoba Classic

2010-02-18T05:44:00.002-07:00

This week the US PGA Tour has two tournaments: 1) Accenture Match Play Championship (started Wednesday), and 2) the Mayakoba Classic. I posted the entry for the Accenture Match Play Championship on Wednesday. This post is for the Mayakoba Classic.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Mayakoba Classic.

#	Player	CLi
1	Steve Elkington	7.45
2	John Merrick	13.75
3	Heath Slocum	14.85
4	Charles Howell III	17.05
5	Kevin Stadler	17.95
6	Briny Baird	18.75
7	Mark Wilson	21.65
8	J.P. Hayes	24.15
9	Brendon De Jonge	24.45
10	Joe Ogilvie	26.95
11	Shigeki Maruyama	29.65
12	Chris DiMarco	30.10
13	Boo Weekley	30.75
14	Joe Durant	34.15
15	Jarrod Lyle	35.05

The CLi has been rather good in predicting the results for this tournament in the past. I am going to go with the CLi rankings, and use the top 5. For one, I don't have the time to look into the details of each of the players in the top 15 CLi rankings. And second, in passing, the rankings look rather good.

Below are my 5 picks for the Mayakoba Classic:

#	Player	CLi
1	Steve Elkington	7.45
2	John Merrick	13.75
3	Heath Slocum	14.85
4	Charles Howell III	17.05
5	Kevin Stadler	17.95

Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

K.J. Choi
Heath Slocum
Mark Wilson
Steve Elkington
Kevin Stadler

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Mayakoba Classic

We have 3 players in common this week: Slocum, Elkington, and Stadler.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Mayakoba Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Accenture Match Play Championship

2010-02-16T18:39:00.004-07:00

This week the US PGA Tour has two tournaments, with one of them starting on Wednesday. The Accenture Match Play Championship starts on Wednesday, with the Mayakoba Classic starting on Thursday. Since I am late in posting this week, I will do a brief posting on things for the Accenture tournament in this posting and then will add my picks for the Mayakoba tournament tomorrow in a separate posting.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Accenture Match Play Championship.

#	Player	CLi
1	Rory McIlroy	24.60
2	Steve Stricker	28.10
3	Ian Poulter	28.70
4	Luke Donald	29.10
5	Geoff Ogilvy	29.70
6	Stewart Cink	30.70
7	Ernie Els	30.70
8	Robert Allenby	31.30
9	Ben Crane	32.10
10	Tim Clark	32.40
11	Sean O'Hair	32.50
12	Dustin Johnson	32.70
13	Padraig Harrington	32.80
14	David Toms	33.10
15	Retief Goosen	33.90

The CLi has a tough time with match play events, as do many calculations and experts. You can see this in the high CLi figures, which implies that the CLi doesn't think there is any real favorite in the tournament. That said, I am still going to stick with the top 5 in the CLi rankings as they look like good picks. McIlroy is the suspect pick, even though he is at the top of the list. He has only played this event once, finishing 5th last year. So it will be interesting to see how the youngster does.

Below are my 5 picks for the Accenture Match Play Championship:

#	Player	CLi
1	Rory McIlroy	24.60
2	Steve Stricker	28.10
3	Ian Poulter	28.70
4	Luke Donald	29.10
5	Geoff Ogilvy	29.70

Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

Lee Westwood
Steve Stricker
Paul Casey
Tim Clark
Ian Poulter

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Accenture Match Play Championship

We have 2 players in common this week: Stricker and Poulter.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Accenture Match Play Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	30%	30%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	10%	10%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	10%	10%

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Review

2010-02-15T07:16:00.001-07:00

It is now time to review the picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Retief Goosen | 80 (MC) | $0
Mike Wier | 52 | $14,539
Phil Mickelson | 8 | $186,000
Tim Clark | 10 | $137,433
Jim Furyk | 35 | $26,745

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

Retief Goosen | 80 (MC) | $0
Dustin Johnson | 1 | $1,116,000
Brandt Snedeker | 21 | $62,000
Mike Weir | 52 | $14,539
Luke Donald | 16 | $93,000

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$364,717	$1,285,539	TI
Avg Rank	37.0	34.0	TI
Made Cut	4	4	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won a draw.

This tournament overall was won by Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 0 wins to the Tour Outsider, 2 wins to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

2010-02-09T19:31:00.002-07:00

This week the US PGA Tour moves to the Monterrey to play the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

#	Player	CLi
1	Retief Goosen	3.35
2	Dustin Johnson	3.70
3	Mike Weir	6.60
4	Phil Mickelson	8.35
5	Tim Clark	9.20
6	Jim Furyk	11.90
7	Matt Kuchar	14.60
8	Rory Sabbatini	19.30
9	Kevin Sutherland	23.30
10	Luke Donald	25.05
11	Vaughn Taylor	25.60
12	Sean O'Hair	27.50
13	Davis Love III	27.85
14	Marc Leishman	28.40
15	Spencer Levin	30.45

This week's CLi ranking has 5 players with a CLi figure less than 10. This should make it easy and more comfortable to pick those players. However, I am going to skip over last year's champion, Dustin Johnson, so I can pick a Jim Furyk who is further down the list (one spot down the list). Johnson won last year at Pebble Beach, and he played well last week at Riveria. However, I am not sure if he can keep that trend up. As well, I like Furyk this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am:

#	Player	CLi
1	Retief Goosen	3.35
2	Mike Weir	6.60
3	Phil Mickelson	8.35
4	Tim Clark	9.20
5	Jim Furyk	11.90

Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

Retief Goosen
Dustin Johnson
Brandt Snedeker
Mike Weir
Luke Donald

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

We have 2 players in common this week: Goosen and Weir.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Northern Trust Open Review

2010-02-08T07:06:00.001-07:00

It is now time to review the picks for the Northern Trust Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Steve Stricker | 1 | $1,152,000
Robert Allenby | 27 | $45,440
Rory Sabbatini | 76 (MC) | $0
Phil Mickelson | 45 | $20,480
Charles Howell III | 108 (MC) | $0

Here are the results for the Tour Insider's (Bolton's) picks.

Steve Stricker | 1 | $1,152,000
Phil Mickelson | 45 | $20,480
Robert Allenby | 27 | $45,440
Matt Kuchar | 20 | $66,743
Rory Sabbatini | 76 (MC) | $0

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$1,217,920	$1,284,663	TI
Avg Rank	51.4	33.8	TI
Made Cut	3	4	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was won by Tour Insider.

This tournament overall was won by Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider is 0 wins to the Tour Outsider, 1 win to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

Northern Trust Open

2010-02-02T07:09:00.006-07:00

This week the US PGA Tour is just north of Los Angeles in Pacific Palisades to play the Northern Trust Open. The tournament is held at the famous Riveria Country Club.

This week I introduce the Tour Outsider vs Tour Insider again [ hat tip to Mr. Ed Cushing on pushing me on this one ]. So for the remainder of the year I will post my picks against pgatour.com's Rob Bolton. Even though he is not titled "Tour Insider" by pgatour.com, for the sake of this blog, we will call him the Tour Insider.

Bolton posts the Power Rankings for pgatour.com. His Power Rankings usually consist of ten players. So I will take the top 5 players from his list and compare him to my 5 picks for each tournament this year. For readers that are familiar with how I compared results in the past, I look at total winnings by the 5 players picked, the average rank for all 5 players, and the number of players that make the cut in our picks. For each tournament, there will be a win, lose, or draw between the two of us. Hopefully this will add to the value of reading the picks.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Northern Trust Open.

#	Player	CLi
1	Steve Stricker	2.95
2	Robert Allenby	4.80
3	Rory Sabbatini	5.65
4	Phil Mickelson	6.75
5	Tim Clark	11.60
6	Charles Howell III	15.35
7	K.J. Choi	20.00
8	Bubba Watson	21.45
9	John Rollins	21.55
10	Adam Scott	21.75
11	Jim Furyk	21.80
12	Matt Kuchar	21.80
13	Ernie Els	22.45
14	Angel Cabrera	22.65
15	Carl Pettersson	24.80

Nice. There are 4 players that have CLi figures below 10. That is a good sign that 1) the CLi calculation has enough data to compute a better forecasts, and 2) the are several clear players that have an advantage over the rest of the field. So, from that logic, I will stick with the first 4 players in the CLi rankings: Stricker, Allenby, Sabbatini, and Mickelson.

For my 5th pick, I would normally stick with Tim Clark. Very seldom do I skip over Clark as he is a fighter on the course and plays to the end of the tournament. However, I see a player in the 6th spot of the CLi rankings that has played well at Riveria and is playing well this year leading up to this tournament. That is Charles Howell, III. I am going to pick Howell for my 5th player.

Below are my 5 picks for the Northern Trust Open:

#	Player	CLi
1	Steve Stricker	2.95
2	Robert Allenby	4.80
3	Rory Sabbatini	5.65
4	Phil Mickelson	6.75
5	Charles Howell III	15.35

Below is the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:

Steve Stricker
Phil Mickelson
Robert Allenby
Matt Kuchar
Rory Sabbatini

Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Northern Trust Open

We have 4 players in common this week: Stricker, Mickelson, Allenby, and Sabbatini. So the difference in our picks is Kuchar (Tour Insider) and Howell (Tour Outsider). Play well Howell.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Northern Trust Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Farmer's Insurance Open

2010-01-26T06:40:00.003-07:00

This week the US PGA Tour moves to the southern coast of California to play at Torrey Pines. The tournament has a new name, the Farmer's Insurance Open. Buick formerly sponsored the event when it was called the Buick Invitational.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Farmer's Insurance Open.

#	Player	CLi
1	Ernie Els	5.05
2	Charles Howell III	6.30
3	Robert Allenby	10.50
4	Bill Haas	11.90
5	Nick Watney	12.35
6	Bubba Watson	12.90
7	Brandt Snedeker	13.35
8	Matthew Jones	13.95
9	Lucas Glover	14.35
10	John Rollins	16.15
11	Troy Matteson	19.65
12	Kevin Sutherland	22.30
13	Ryan Palmer	22.50
14	Chad Campbell	22.55
15	Jeff Klauk	24.35

It is good to see Ernie Els on the top of the list this week. It has been a long time since I have seen the CLi rankings have Els at the top of the list. So I will be quick to pick him as my first pick this week. Then I will continue down the list and pick Howell, Allenby, skip over Haas, pick Watney and Bubba Watson.

The younger Haas (Bill is the son of Champions Tour player, Jay Haas) won last week for the first time at the Bob Hope. Being that it was his first win, I think he is going to be distracted this week due to not having won before. The exposure of winning is usually more than what first-time winners think it will be. So I see him putting together a decent tournament, but will have one bad round that will put him at the lower end of the players that make the cut.

As for picking Howell, he plays well at Torrey Pines. He has not had a good couple of years of late. However, he has placed in the top 30 in the last 3 tournament he has played in, with a 5t place at the Sony Open. So I am hoping that he will continue playing well this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the Farmer's Insurance Open:

#	Player	CLi
1	Ernie Els	5.05
2	Charles Howell III	6.30
3	Robert Allenby	10.50
4	Nick Watney	12.35
5	Bubba Watson	12.90

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Farmer's Insurance Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

I have had several comments from readers saying that they want to have a "competitor" again for this blog....another "Tour Insider". The suggestions that have been made have been good ones, and hopefully I will be able to add the "competition" back into the readings on this blog in the near future. Readers say that the competition, as well as the additional picks from another person, makes this blog more useful.

Bob Hope Classic

2010-01-19T10:03:00.002-07:00

This week the US PGA Tour moves to the mainland from Hawaii to play the Bob Hope Classic in California.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Bob Hope Classic.

#	Player	CLi
1	Tim Clark	5.20
2	Chad Campbell	8.85
3	Pat Perez	10.50
4	Webb Simpson	19.40
5	Ryan Moore	19.70
6	Ryan Palmer	20.00
7	Bill Lunde	20.40
8	Justin Leonard	22.00
9	Scott Verplank	22.70
10	Charley Hoffman	24.15
11	Martin Laird	24.40
12	Scott Piercy	24.65
13	Vaughn Taylor	25.45
14	Joe Ogilvie	25.50
15	John Merrick	27.10

I am going to stick with the top 3 in the CLi rankings: Clark, Campbell, and Perez. Then I am going to skip over Webb Simpson as he is a little green and I don't know if he will consistently hold up this week. He has played well in this tournament, but I don't know how he will continue to play at this tournament (hmmmm....that is with most things in the future). Then I am going to pick Moore and last week's winner, Ryan Palmer.

Down the list in the CLi rankings, there are several players that also look good which I didn't pick. For example, Justin Leonard and Scott Verplank. However, I will stick with the 5 players that I selected

Below are my 5 picks for the Bob Hope Classic:

#	Player	CLi
1	Tim Clark	5.20
2	Chad Campbell	8.85
3	Pat Perez	10.50
4	Ryan Moore	19.70
5	Ryan Palmer	20.00

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Bob Hope Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Sony Open in Hawaii

2010-01-12T08:52:00.003-07:00

This week the US PGA Tour stays in Hawaii to play the second tournament of the 2010 season: the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Even though this is the second tournament of the season, it is the first full field tournament. Players should be "moving and grooving" and itching to play well so they get off to a good start for the season.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Sony Open.

#	Player	Cli
1	Rory Sabbatini	5.80
2	Steve Stricker	9.55
3	Zach Johnson	9.80
4	Troy Matteson	14.10
5	Stewart Cink	19.95
6	Stephen Ames	20.40
7	Y.E. Yang	20.80
8	Tim Clark	21.20
9	George McNeill	21.75
10	Chad Campbell	23.20
11	Pat Perez	24.10
12	Luke Donald	26.00
13	Ernie Els	27.20
14	Jeff Klauk	27.80
15	Shigeki Maruyama	28.60

I am going to stick with the top 5 in the CLi rankings this week: Sabbatini, Stricker, Johnson, Matteson, and Cink. Out of these 5, Matteson is my questionable player in terms of fans knowing him. However, he has played 31st or better in the last 4 Sony Opens, with an 8th place finish in 2008. Of the 16 rounds he has played in this tournament, he has shot in the 60s 11 times, with the his highest score being 72. So he plays well and consistent in this tournament.

I am solely relying on intelligence of the CLi. Let's hope that is a good strategy this week. Players should at least be enjoying the warm weather when it is still rather cold in many other players in the northern hemisphere.

Below are my 5 picks for the Sony Open:

#	Player	Cli
1	Rory Sabbatini	5.80
2	Steve Stricker	9.55
3	Zach Johnson	9.80
4	Troy Matteson	14.10
5	Stewart Cink	19.95

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Sony Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
7	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

SBS Championship

2010-01-05T07:07:00.003-07:00

Ok, I am now back to try to post on a regular basis my picks each week using the Golf CLi. Until I find a person in the media to compete with, I will just post my picks.

This week is the beginning of the 2010 season for the US PGA Tour, with the tournament being the SBS Championship. This tournament has changed its name this year with the title sponsor change. In the past this tournament has been called the Mercedes-Benz Championship since Mercedes-Benz had sponsored the event. However, this year SBS Technologies has become the title sponsor for the tournament and thus has earned the right to change the name of the tournament.

The first tournament, as is normally the case on the US PGA Tour, takes place in Hawaii with a limited field tournament. Only players that won an official money event in the 2009 season are eligible to play in this tournament. Currently the field consists of 28 players.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the SBS Championship.

	Player	CLi
1	Stephen Ames	4.20
2	Troy Matteson	4.90
3	Nick Watney	5.20
4	Steve Stricker	5.50
5	Angel Cabrera	7.60
6	Lucas Glover	7.80
7	Zach Johnson	8.50
8	Kenny Perry	9.50
9	Retief Goosen	10.10
10	Dustin Johnson	10.10
11	Matt Kuchar	12.10
12	Stewart Cink	12.40
13	Sean O'Hair	13.30
14	Martin Laird	13.90
15	Rory Sabbatini	13.90

It is difficult to pick for a tournament that is early in the season, especially the first tournament of the season since we don't have much knowledge of how the players worked duriung the off season. As well, with this being a limited field tournament and with the tournament taking place in such a nice place as Hawaii (i.e. a vacation spot), one doesn't know if the player is going to focus on winning or just go through the motions during this tournament. However, in another sense, since the tournament is a limited field there are less player factors involved because there are fewer players to pick from.

This week I am going to go with Ames, Watney, Stricker, Johnson, and Perry. I tried to pick players that I feel are focused on winning this week and who will not play around during the tournament. Ames is the caveat in this pick, as he might not be focused. However, he is a favorite based upon the CLi so I have stuck with him in my picks.

Below are my 5 picks for the SBS Championship:

	Player	CLi
1	Stephen Ames	4.20
2	Nick Watney	5.20
3	Steve Stricker	5.50
4	Zach Johnson	8.50
5	Kenny Perry	9.50

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the SBS Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	20%	20%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	0%	0%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	30%	30%

Taking a break until the start of the 2010 Season

2009-10-22T09:25:00.003-06:00

I am taking a break at the moment....just too many things to have to focus on this Fall season. So I won't be posting my picks again until the 2010 professional golf season starts. In the meantime, if you want to run your own Golf CLi you can do so for any of the tournaments on the major tours by setting up an account on golfcli.com.

Turning Stone Resort Championship

2009-09-30T22:05:00.001-06:00

Another week gone by, and I continue to be behind the eight ball with my posts....hmmmm. In any event, here are my picks for the Turning Stone Resort Championship. The tournament is the start of the US PGA Tour's Fall Finish.

1. Bill Haas
2. John Senden
3. Dustin Johnson
4. Mark Wilson
5. Jonathan Byrd

Tour Championship

2009-09-23T05:44:00.002-06:00

I am running late this week and will not have time to post the detail posting for the Tour Championship later today. So I am going to post my five picks this morning and then update the update tomorrow or so.

Here are my picks for the Tour Championship which is being played in Atlanta this week. The fields is limited to 30 players.

1. Tiger Woods
2. Jim Furyk
3. Padraig Harrington
4. Zach Johnson
5. Retief Goosen

BMW Championship

2009-09-10T07:06:00.001-06:00

The 3rd leg of the US PGA Tour's FedEx Playoff season will be the BMW Championship, which is being played in Chicago at Cog Hill.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the BMW Championship.

#	Player	CLi
1	Tiger Woods	1.35
2	Steve Stricker	7.90
3	Sergio Garcia	11.65
4	Jim Furyk	16.05
5	Fredrik Jacobson	16.55
6	Ernie Els	17.60
7	Ian Poulter	17.90
8	Heath Slocum	19.50
9	Scott Verplank	19.85
10	Stephen Ames	22.80
11	Hunter Mahan	23.15
12	Angel Cabrera	23.45
13	Bill Haas	23.70
14	Steve Marino	23.80
15	Brandt Snedeker	24.00

I am going to go with the top 4 in the CLi rankings: Woods, Stricker, Garcia, and Furyk. Then I am going to skip down to Poulter for my 5th pick. He is a dark horse for this tournament, as most people would not think about picking him. Let's see if he is able to pull in a top 10 this week.

Below are my 5 picks for the BMW Championship:

#	Player	CLi
1	Tiger Woods	1.35
2	Steve Stricker	7.90
3	Sergio Garcia	11.65
4	Jim Furyk	16.05
5	Ian Poulter	17.90

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the BMW Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship

2009-09-02T12:14:00.001-06:00

The 2nd leg of the US PGA Tour's FedEx Playoff season will be the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship. The event begins on Friday and ends on Monday (Labor Day holiday).

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship.

#	Player	CLi
1	Tiger Woods	2.20
2	Ernie Els	9.05
3	Sergio Garcia	13.05
4	Robert Allenby	16.85
5	Steve Stricker	18.45
6	Ryan Moore	19.35
7	Jason Bohn	20.85
8	Bill Haas	22.15
9	Steve Marino	23.65
10	Brandt Snedeker	24.05
11	John Rollins	24.35
12	Mike Weir	26.15
13	Justin Rose	29.55
14	Phil Mickelson	29.60
15	Chad Campbell	30.45

the top 5 players in the CLi rankings look really good. Woods plays well at the Deutsche. Els has been improving his play of late and had a chance to win going into the final 9 holes last week at the Barclays. Garcia has been playing well, however, he has not converted a win yet. Allenby plays well at the Deutsche and is always a solid pick in any tournament due to his consistent play. Stricker is also playing well, and had a chance to win last week at the Barclays Classic.

Below are my 5 picks for the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship:

#	Player	CLi
1	Tiger Woods	2.20
2	Ernie Els	9.05
3	Sergio Garcia	13.05
4	Robert Allenby	16.85
5	Steve Stricker	18.45

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Barclays Classic

2009-08-27T04:30:00.003-06:00

This week the US PGA Tour begins it's playoff season beginning in New York with the Barclays Classic.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Barclays Classic.

#	Player	CLi
1	Jason Bohn	15.40
2	Steve Stricker	21.40
3	Sergio Garcia	22.75
4	Hunter Mahan	31.05
5	Ernie Els	31.50
6	Ryan Moore	31.50
7	Tim Herron	31.85
8	Bill Haas	32.10
9	Padraig Harrington	32.45
10	Justin Rose	35.35
11	Zach Johnson	35.65
12	Jerry Kelly	36.05
13	John Senden	36.05
14	Fred Couples	36.10
15	John Rollins	37.30

With the Barclays playing on a different course for the first time, it is difficult to see how past performance in this tournament will help the players. As you will see in the CLi configuration at the end of this posting, I have accounted for that by lowering the weight of the importance for past results in this tournament. I didn't lower it to 0%, as I still think there is some residual left over with the tournament being part of the playoffs and player's mental as such. So have kept a 30% (15% + 15%) weight on the past results for the tournament in place. That said, the CLi results above reflect that configuration. You will see that the CLi figures are high. This means the CLi is not able to determine a clear cut group of favorite players to play well.

As for my picks, I am going to skip around a little and not stick with the top 5 players. My 5 picks are Bohn, Garcia, Els, Harrington, and Johnson. Garcia, Els, Harrington and Johnson are safety picks. Bohn is the suspect pick. However, the CLi showed him on the top of the list and his CLi is 6 points lower than the 2nd player in the list. He did play well at the Wyndham last week. So I decided to take a chance on him this week.

As for Els, if he keeps hitting it the way he has been of late, it will be up to his putter to make the difference.

Below are my 5 picks for the Barclays Classic:

#	Player	CLi
1	Jason Bohn	15.40
2	Sergio Garcia	22.75
3	Ernie Els	31.50
4	Padraig Harrington	32.45
5	Zach Johnson	35.65

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Barclays Classic:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	15%	15%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	15%	15%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

Wyndham Championship

2009-08-19T07:19:00.002-06:00

This week the US PGA Tour is playing in the Wyndham Championship in Greensboro, North Carolina.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Wyndham Championship.

#	Player	CLi
1	Michael Letzig	6.90
2	Martin Laird	8.20
3	Jason Bohn	25.05
4	Joe Ogilvie	25.15
5	Jonathan Byrd	27.85
6	Charles Warren	31.35
7	Kevin Streelman	31.50
8	Jason Gore	32.90
9	Tim Petrovic	33.60
10	J.J. Henry	34.35
11	Jason Dufner	34.55
12	Scott McCarron	35.05
13	Ryan Moore	35.20
14	John Senden	36.20
15	Brandt Snedeker	37.80

The first two players in the CLi rankings, Letzig and Laird, do not seem like obvious picks. However, they do have a CLi figures below 10. So it seems worth my while to include them in my picks.

After Letzig and Laird, the CLi figures jump to 25 and above. This means that the next 3 picks are up in the air for me. So I cam going to scan through the next 13 players in the list and pick Ogilvie, Byrd, and Henry.

Below are my 5 picks for the Wyndham Championship:

#	Player	CLi
1	Michael Letzig	6.90
2	Martin Laird	8.20
3	Joe Ogilvie	25.15
4	Jonathan Byrd	27.85
5	J.J. Henry	34.35

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Wyndham Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
5	25%	25%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
30	5%	5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
4	20%	20%

PGA Championship Review

2009-08-18T08:02:00.002-06:00

It is now time to review the picks for the PGA Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

1 Tiger Woods | 2 | $810,000
2 Retief Goosen | 51 | $16,260
3 Steve Stricker | 109 (MC) | $0
4 David Toms | 36 | $31,736
5 Stewart Cink | 67 | $14,050

Here are the results for Paul's picks.

1 Tiger Woods | 2 | $810,000
2 Lee Westwood | 3 | $435,000
3 Padraig Harrington | 10 | $150,633
4 Geoff Ogilvy | 43 | $21,113
5 Retief Goosen | 51 | $16,260

Here is the comparison of the results for our picks.

	Tour Outsider	Paul Ginn	Winner
Total Earnings	$872,046	$1,433,006	Paul
Avg Rank	53.0	21.8	Paul
Made Cut	4	5	Paul
Outcome	--	--	Paul

The Total Earnings category was won by Paul.

The Avg Rank category was won by Paul.

The Made Cut category was won by Paul.

This tournament overall was won by Paul.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and Paul is 5 wins to the Tour Outsider, 2 wins to Paul, and 0 draws.

This marks the end of the competition between Paul and I. It looks like I got the better of Paul during this competition, having won 5 of the 7 tournaments that we made picks for. On a positive note for Paul, the one of the two wins that Paul had did include a major (the PGA Championship).

PGA Championship

2009-08-12T08:20:00.002-06:00

This week the US PGA Tour is playing it's 4th and final major of the year, the US PGA Championship. The tournament is being held in Minnesota at Hazeltine, which is where Rich Beem won the event in 2002.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the US PGA Championship.

#	Player	CLi
1	Tiger Woods	1.00
2	Retief Goosen	15.10
3	Steve Stricker	15.20
4	David Toms	17.00
5	Brandt Snedeker	18.00
6	Bo Van Pelt	20.00
7	Phil Mickelson	20.30
8	Stewart Cink	20.50
9	John Senden	22.30
10	Kenny Perry	23.70
11	Woody Austin	27.30
12	Nathan Green	28.80
13	Lucas Glover	29.70
14	Hunter Mahan	30.80
15	Jim Furyk	31.10

I am going to go with the first 4 players in the CLi rankings: Woods, Goosen, Stricker, and Toms. Then I am going to skip down the 8th player and pick Cink. He played well at Hazeltine in 2002 and is playing well this summer, having won the British Open.

Note: It is hard to pass over Mickelson. It was a choice between Toms and Mickelson. I decided to take a chance on Toms to see if he can rekindle his 2001 win at the US PGA Championship.

Below are my 5 picks for the US PGA Championship:

#	Player	CLi
1	Tiger Woods	1.00
2	Retief Goosen	15.10
3	Steve Stricker	15.20
4	David Toms	17.00
5	Stewart Cink	20.50

Below are Paul Ginn's 5 picks for the US PGA Championship:

#	Player
1	Tiger Woods
2	Lee Westwood
3	Padraig Harrington
4	Geoff Ogilvy
5	Retief Goosen

In this tournament, we have two players in common: Woods and Goosen.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the US PGA Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA1)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
7	20%	20%
Number of Days Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA2)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
60	10%	10%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
Number	Scoring Avg Weight (SA3)	Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
6	20%	20%