Thank you for being a regular reader, as it has been enjoyable to receive comments from and have a dialogue with you all.
At this time I am taking hiatus from the Tour Outsider blog. I am not sure when I will be coming back and posting on a regular basis.
Thursday, January 2, 2014
Wednesday, October 9, 2013
Frys.com Open
After several weeks off, the US PGA Tour starts the 2013-2014 season in San Martin, California at the Frys.com Open.
Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Frys.com Open.
I am late in my post and am still needing to work on other activities (i.e. can't spend much time on this post), so I am just going to list the 5 players that I have picked...in other words, not providing an explanation for my picks.
Below are my 5 picks for the Frys.com Open:
Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
Bolton's Power Rankings: Frys.com Open
We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Woodland and Horschel.
Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Frys.com Open:
If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.
| # | Player | CLi |
| 1 | Gary Woodland | 9.15 |
| 2 | Bryce Molder | 16.00 |
| 3 | Rocco Mediate | 19.60 |
| 4 | Billy Horschel | 21.05 |
| 5 | J.J. Henry | 22.00 |
| 6 | Jason Kokrak | 23.45 |
| 7 | David Hearn | 23.70 |
| 8 | Nicholas Thompson | 24.40 |
| 9 | Jonas Blixt | 25.30 |
| 10 | Patrick Reed | 28.30 |
| 11 | Russell Knox | 29.25 |
| 12 | Steven Bowditch | 30.35 |
| 13 | Will MacKenzie | 30.45 |
| 14 | Charles Howell III | 30.55 |
| 15 | John Merrick | 32.70 |
I am late in my post and am still needing to work on other activities (i.e. can't spend much time on this post), so I am just going to list the 5 players that I have picked...in other words, not providing an explanation for my picks.
Below are my 5 picks for the Frys.com Open:
| # | Player | CLi |
| 1 | Gary Woodland | 9.15 |
| 2 | Bryce Molder | 16.00 |
| 3 | Billy Horschel | 21.05 |
| 4 | J.J. Henry | 22.00 |
| 5 | Jason Kokrak | 23.45 |
Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
- Gary Woodland
- Billy Horschel
- Hideki Matsuyama
- John Peterson
- Jonas Blixt
Bolton's Power Rankings: Frys.com Open
We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Woodland and Horschel.
Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Frys.com Open:
| Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back | ||
| Number | Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) | Earnings Avg Weight (EA1) |
| 5 | 25% | 25% |
| Number of Days Looking Back | ||
| Number | Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) | Earnings Avg Weight (EA2) |
| 45 | 5% | 5% |
| Number of Tournaments Looking Back | ||
| Number | Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) | Earnings Avg Weight (EA3) |
| 6 | 20% | 20% |
If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
TOUR Championship
This week the US PGA Tour has its final FedEx Playoff event, the BMW Championship. The event is being held at East Lake Golf Course in Atlanta, Georgia, with only 30 players in the field (which makes it a little easier to select 5 players who will play well this week).
Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the TOUR Championship.
I am making it easy on myself and will be sticking with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings. They all have CLi figures less than 10, which is a good sign that the CLi has figured out they have a fairly good probability of playing well this week.
Furyk (analysis) was leading going into the final round last week at the BMW Championship before placing 3rd behind Zach Johnson and Nick Watney. He shot 59 in the tournament, so he is playing well currently. He placed 7th in this tournament last year, didn't make the championship in in 2011, and won the event in 2010.
Johnson (analysis) won last week, beating out Fuyrk in the last round, and has finished in the top 8 in 6 of the last 7 tournaments he has played in. So he is also playing well at this time. As for the TOUR Championship, he has faired in the middle pack 4 of the 6 times he has played in the tournament. He has a 9th place finish in 2010 and a 2nd placed finish in 2007.
Woods (analysis) has been playing inconsistently this year compared to his past play. However, he is playing better than most players. He finished 11th last week at the BMW Championship, and was 2nd several weeks ago in the Barclays. East Lake tends to treat him well. He has finished 8th (2012), 2nd (2009), 1st (2007), 2nd (2005), and 2nd (2004) the last 5 times he has played in this event.
Garcia (analysis) finished 15th last year in this week, but had a 2nd place finish in 2008 and a 4th place finish in 2007. He has not necessarily placed great in the tournaments leading up to this week, but he has been hitting it well and playing consistent -- especially for him. His best finish this past month was 4th at the Deustche U.S. Bank Championship.
Day (analysis) finished 6th in this event the last time he played in it (2011) and finished 4th last week at the BMW Championship. So has showed some good play recently and has had prior success at this event.
Below are my 5 picks for the TOUR Championship:
Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
Bolton's Power Rankings: TOUR Championship
We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Day and Johnson.
Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the TOUR Championship:
If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.
| # | Player | CLi |
| 1 | Jim Furyk | 3.70 |
| 2 | Zach Johnson | 8.25 |
| 3 | Tiger Woods | 8.65 |
| 4 | Sergio Garcia | 8.70 |
| 5 | Jason Day | 9.25 |
| 6 | Justin Rose | 10.80 |
| 7 | Steve Stricker | 11.20 |
| 8 | Nick Watney | 11.60 |
| 9 | Adam Scott | 11.65 |
| 10 | Hunter Mahan | 12.10 |
| 11 | Brandt Snedeker | 12.60 |
| 12 | Luke Donald | 12.85 |
| 13 | Bill Haas | 13.20 |
| 14 | Henrik Stenson | 13.35 |
| 15 | Gary Woodland | 13.75 |
I am making it easy on myself and will be sticking with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings. They all have CLi figures less than 10, which is a good sign that the CLi has figured out they have a fairly good probability of playing well this week.
Furyk (analysis) was leading going into the final round last week at the BMW Championship before placing 3rd behind Zach Johnson and Nick Watney. He shot 59 in the tournament, so he is playing well currently. He placed 7th in this tournament last year, didn't make the championship in in 2011, and won the event in 2010.
Johnson (analysis) won last week, beating out Fuyrk in the last round, and has finished in the top 8 in 6 of the last 7 tournaments he has played in. So he is also playing well at this time. As for the TOUR Championship, he has faired in the middle pack 4 of the 6 times he has played in the tournament. He has a 9th place finish in 2010 and a 2nd placed finish in 2007.
Woods (analysis) has been playing inconsistently this year compared to his past play. However, he is playing better than most players. He finished 11th last week at the BMW Championship, and was 2nd several weeks ago in the Barclays. East Lake tends to treat him well. He has finished 8th (2012), 2nd (2009), 1st (2007), 2nd (2005), and 2nd (2004) the last 5 times he has played in this event.
Garcia (analysis) finished 15th last year in this week, but had a 2nd place finish in 2008 and a 4th place finish in 2007. He has not necessarily placed great in the tournaments leading up to this week, but he has been hitting it well and playing consistent -- especially for him. His best finish this past month was 4th at the Deustche U.S. Bank Championship.
Day (analysis) finished 6th in this event the last time he played in it (2011) and finished 4th last week at the BMW Championship. So has showed some good play recently and has had prior success at this event.
Below are my 5 picks for the TOUR Championship:
| # | Player | CLi |
| 1 | Jim Furyk | 3.70 |
| 2 | Zach Johnson | 8.25 |
| 3 | Tiger Woods | 8.65 |
| 4 | Sergio Garcia | 8.70 |
| 5 | Jason Day | 9.25 |
Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
- Hunter Mahan
- Brandt Snedeker
- Luke Donald
- Jason Day
- Zach Johnson
Bolton's Power Rankings: TOUR Championship
We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Day and Johnson.
Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the TOUR Championship:
| Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back | ||
| Number | Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) | Earnings Avg Weight (EA1) |
| 5 | 25% | 25% |
| Number of Days Looking Back | ||
| Number | Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) | Earnings Avg Weight (EA2) |
| 30 | 5% | 5% |
| Number of Tournaments Looking Back | ||
| Number | Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) | Earnings Avg Weight (EA3) |
| 4 | 20% | 20% |
If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
BMW Championship
After a week off, the US PGA Tour is in Chicago to play the 3rd FedEx Playoff event: the BMW Championship. The event was traditionally played at Cog Hill in Chicago, however, has moved courses the past several years -- last year it was at Crooked Stick in Indiana and this year it is at Conway Farms in Chicago.
Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the BMW Championship.
As with the last tournament, the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship, the top 5 players have CLi figures below 10 -- the 6th player even has a CLi of 10, which makes it difficult to pass up on that player (Adam Scott). This is a good sign that the CLi has a good indication of who has the highest probability of playing well. However, I am still going to stick with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings.
Furyk (analysis) hasn't finished worse than 22nd in this event since 2003, with an average rank of 8.0. He won the event in 2005, and finished 2nd and 3rd in 2009 and 2008 respectively. He finished 9th in the event last year. Since the beginning of August, Furyk has played in 4 tournaments, and finished in the top 10 in 3 of them: 6th - Barclays Classic, 2nd - PGA Championship, and 9th - Bridgestone Invitational. He finished 22nd in the other tournament -- the Deutsch U.S. Bank Championship.
Woods (analysis) might not be playing up to par compared to what the media compares him to. However, his results have been rather good. Since August he has won a tournament (Bridgestone Invitational) and finished 2nd in another (Barclays Classic). In the other two tournament he has played in Since August, he didn't fair as well -- placing 65th (Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship) and 40th (PGA Championship). It is the uncharacteristic inconsistency that has thrown the media for a loop. In this event, he tends to play well -- he actually tends to play well in Chicago-area tournaments. Since 2003, he has won this event 3 times, placed 2nd twice, finished no worse than 15th, and has an average rank of 4.1.
I won't go into details for Rose, Johnson, and Stricker, but you can view their detailed analysis from the following links: Rose - analysis, Johnson - analysis, and Stricker - analysis. In addition, you can view Scott's analysis for the tournament.
Below are my 5 picks for the BMW Championship:
Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
Bolton's Power Rankings: BMW Championship
We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Rose and Stricker.
Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the BMW Championship:
If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.
| # | Player | CLi |
| 1 | Jim Furyk | 5.80 |
| 2 | Tiger Woods | 6.70 |
| 3 | Justin Rose | 7.30 |
| 4 | Zach Johnson | 8.90 |
| 5 | Steve Stricker | 9.60 |
| 6 | Adam Scott | 10.00 |
| 7 | John Huh | 11.70 |
| 8 | Matt Kuchar | 13.40 |
| 9 | Jason Dufner | 14.30 |
| 10 | Sergio Garcia | 14.60 |
| 11 | Graham Delaet | 16.40 |
| 12 | Rory McIlroy | 17.70 |
| 13 | Phil Mickelson | 18.00 |
| 14 | Gary Woodland | 18.20 |
| 15 | Keegan Bradley | 21.40 |
As with the last tournament, the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship, the top 5 players have CLi figures below 10 -- the 6th player even has a CLi of 10, which makes it difficult to pass up on that player (Adam Scott). This is a good sign that the CLi has a good indication of who has the highest probability of playing well. However, I am still going to stick with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings.
Furyk (analysis) hasn't finished worse than 22nd in this event since 2003, with an average rank of 8.0. He won the event in 2005, and finished 2nd and 3rd in 2009 and 2008 respectively. He finished 9th in the event last year. Since the beginning of August, Furyk has played in 4 tournaments, and finished in the top 10 in 3 of them: 6th - Barclays Classic, 2nd - PGA Championship, and 9th - Bridgestone Invitational. He finished 22nd in the other tournament -- the Deutsch U.S. Bank Championship.
Woods (analysis) might not be playing up to par compared to what the media compares him to. However, his results have been rather good. Since August he has won a tournament (Bridgestone Invitational) and finished 2nd in another (Barclays Classic). In the other two tournament he has played in Since August, he didn't fair as well -- placing 65th (Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship) and 40th (PGA Championship). It is the uncharacteristic inconsistency that has thrown the media for a loop. In this event, he tends to play well -- he actually tends to play well in Chicago-area tournaments. Since 2003, he has won this event 3 times, placed 2nd twice, finished no worse than 15th, and has an average rank of 4.1.
I won't go into details for Rose, Johnson, and Stricker, but you can view their detailed analysis from the following links: Rose - analysis, Johnson - analysis, and Stricker - analysis. In addition, you can view Scott's analysis for the tournament.
Below are my 5 picks for the BMW Championship:
| # | Player | CLi |
| 1 | Jim Furyk | 5.80 |
| 2 | Tiger Woods | 6.70 |
| 3 | Justin Rose | 7.30 |
| 4 | Zach Johnson | 8.90 |
| 5 | Steve Stricker | 9.60 |
Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
- Justin Rose
- Adam Scott
- Matt Kuchar
- Steve Stricker
- Henrik Stenson
Bolton's Power Rankings: BMW Championship
We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Rose and Stricker.
Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the BMW Championship:
| Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back | ||
| Number | Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) | Earnings Avg Weight (EA1) |
| 5 | 20% | 20% |
| Number of Days Looking Back | ||
| Number | Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) | Earnings Avg Weight (EA2) |
| 30 | 10% | 10% |
| Number of Tournaments Looking Back | ||
| Number | Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) | Earnings Avg Weight (EA3) |
| 4 | 20% | 20% |
If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship
This week the US PGA Tour is kicking off the FedEx Playoffs with the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship.
Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship.
I am going to stick with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings. This week the top 5 players have CLi figures below 10, which is a good sign that the CLi has a better indication of who has the highest probability of playing well.
Below are my 5 picks for the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship:
Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
Bolton's Power Rankings: Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship
We have 3 players in common in this tournament: Woods, Scott, and Furyk.
Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship:
If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.
| # | Player | CLi |
| 1 | Tiger Woods | 2.95 |
| 2 | Adam Scott | 5.50 |
| 3 | Jim Furyk | 6.50 |
| 4 | Jason Dufner | 7.40 |
| 5 | Steve Stricker | 8.75 |
| 6 | Zach Johnson | 15.65 |
| 7 | Dustin Johnson | 15.85 |
| 8 | Webb Simpson | 16.30 |
| 9 | Rory McIlroy | 18.55 |
| 10 | Phil Mickelson | 20.55 |
| 11 | Matt Kuchar | 20.70 |
| 12 | Brendan Steele | 21.60 |
| 13 | Bryce Molder | 22.70 |
| 14 | Keegan Bradley | 23.50 |
| 15 | Jerry Kelly | 24.70 |
I am going to stick with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings. This week the top 5 players have CLi figures below 10, which is a good sign that the CLi has a better indication of who has the highest probability of playing well.
Below are my 5 picks for the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship:
| # | Player | CLi |
| 1 | Tiger Woods | 2.95 |
| 2 | Adam Scott | 5.50 |
| 3 | Jim Furyk | 6.50 |
| 4 | Jason Dufner | 7.40 |
| 5 | Steve Stricker | 8.75 |
Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
- Tiger Woods
- Adam Scott
- Jim Furyk
- Phil Mickelson
- Keegan Bradley
Bolton's Power Rankings: Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship
We have 3 players in common in this tournament: Woods, Scott, and Furyk.
Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship:
| Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back | ||
| Number | Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) | Earnings Avg Weight (EA1) |
| 5 | 25% | 25% |
| Number of Days Looking Back | ||
| Number | Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) | Earnings Avg Weight (EA2) |
| 30 | 5% | 5% |
| Number of Tournaments Looking Back | ||
| Number | Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) | Earnings Avg Weight (EA3) |
| 4 | 20% | 20% |
If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.
Thursday, August 22, 2013
The Barclays
This week the US PGA Tour is kicking off the FedEx Playoffs with The Barclays.
Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for The Barclays.
I am going to stick with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings (even though the CLi figures are high, with none of the players having a CLi figure less than 10).
Below are my 5 picks for The Barclays:
Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
Bolton's Power Rankings: The Barclays
We have 0 players in common in this tournament.
Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for The Barclays:
If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.
| # | Player | CLi |
| 1 | Brian Harman | 12.05 |
| 2 | William McGirt | 13.15 |
| 3 | Dustin Johnson | 15.00 |
| 4 | Brandt Snedeker | 16.05 |
| 5 | Matt Kuchar | 16.25 |
| 6 | Tiger Woods | 16.40 |
| 7 | Jim Furyk | 17.30 |
| 8 | Nicholas Thompson | 19.80 |
| 9 | Rory Sabbatini | 20.10 |
| 10 | Webb Simpson | 24.90 |
| 11 | Gary Woodland | 28.30 |
| 12 | David Hearn | 29.20 |
| 13 | Lee Westwood | 29.75 |
| 14 | Jason Day | 30.30 |
| 15 | Roberto Castro | 32.95 |
I am going to stick with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings (even though the CLi figures are high, with none of the players having a CLi figure less than 10).
Below are my 5 picks for The Barclays:
| # | Player | CLi |
| 1 | Brian Harman | 12.05 |
| 2 | William McGirt | 13.15 |
| 3 | Dustin Johnson | 15.00 |
| 4 | Brandt Snedeker | 16.05 |
| 5 | Matt Kuchar | 16.25 |
Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
- Jason Day
- Webb Simpson
- Henrik Stenson
- Adam Scott
- Tiger Woods
Bolton's Power Rankings: The Barclays
We have 0 players in common in this tournament.
Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for The Barclays:
| Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back | ||
| Number | Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) | Earnings Avg Weight (EA1) |
| 5 | 25% | 25% |
| Number of Days Looking Back | ||
| Number | Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) | Earnings Avg Weight (EA2) |
| 30 | 5% | 5% |
| Number of Tournaments Looking Back | ||
| Number | Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) | Earnings Avg Weight (EA3) |
| 4 | 20% | 20% |
If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.
Thursday, August 15, 2013
Wyndham Championship
This week the US PGA Tour will play the last tournament of the year before the FedEx Playoffs start: the Wyndham Championship. The tournament takes place in Greensboro, North Carolina at Sedgefield Country Club.
Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Wyndham Championship.
Below are my 5 picks for the Wyndham Championship:
Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
Bolton's Power Rankings: Wyndham Championship
We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Johnson and Haas.
Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Wyndham Championship:
If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.
| # | Player | CLi |
| 1 | Jason Bohn | 8.70 |
| 2 | Chad Campbell | 11.80 |
| 3 | Zach Johnson | 12.30 |
| 4 | Bill Haas | 20.35 |
| 5 | J.J. Henry | 23.95 |
| 6 | Richard Lee | 24.05 |
| 7 | Jonathan Byrd | 24.85 |
| 8 | Webb Simpson | 25.85 |
| 9 | Mark Wilson | 26.25 |
| 10 | Brandt Snedeker | 27.00 |
| 11 | Jerry Kelly | 27.55 |
| 12 | Daniel Summerhays | 27.65 |
| 13 | Sergio Garcia | 27.75 |
| 14 | Andres Romero | 28.70 |
| 15 | Chez Reavie | 30.75 |
Below are my 5 picks for the Wyndham Championship:
| # | Player | CLi |
| 1 | Jason Bohn | 8.70 |
| 2 | Chad Campbell | 11.80 |
| 3 | Zach Johnson | 12.30 |
| 4 | Bill Haas | 20.35 |
| 5 | Richard Lee | 24.05 |
Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
- Zach Johnson
- Webb Simpson
- Brandt Snedeker
- Bill Haas
- Sergio Garcia
Bolton's Power Rankings: Wyndham Championship
We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Johnson and Haas.
Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Wyndham Championship:
| Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back | ||
| Number | Scoring Avg Weight (SA1) | Earnings Avg Weight (EA1) |
| 5 | 25% | 25% |
| Number of Days Looking Back | ||
| Number | Scoring Avg Weight (SA2) | Earnings Avg Weight (EA2) |
| 30 | 5% | 5% |
| Number of Tournaments Looking Back | ||
| Number | Scoring Avg Weight (SA3) | Earnings Avg Weight (EA3) |
| 4 | 20% | 20% |
If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.
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