Tour Outsider: Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship

This is week the US PGA Tour starts it's Fed Ex Cup Playoff Tournaments. The first tournament in the "playoff" is the Deutsche Bank U.S. Bank Championship.

Let's look at the Golf CLi and see who the top 15 players are for the tournament ranked by the CLi figure.

CLi Strength: Top 15 -15.84 | Field +2.37 Rank Player CLi 1 S Vijay Singh 7.50 2 S Carl Pettersson 14.90 3 S Sergio Garcia 15.20 4 S Phil Mickelson 16.00 5 S Jim Furyk 20.70 6 S Charlie Wi 21.50 7 S Kenny Perry 22.70 8 S Robert Allenby 22.90 9 S Jay Williamson 23.90 10 S Fredrik Jacobson 28.10 11 S Eric Axley 31.20 12 S George McNeill 31.70 13 S Briny Baird 32.90 14 S Glen Day 33.10 15 S Dean Wilson 33.60

I am going to skip over Singh this week. Yes, he is slated first in the CLi rankings list, and yes, he does have a CLi figure below 10 and I do not normally skip over players that have a CLi less than 10. However, something striking stuck out to me in Singh's results over the past 4-6 weeks. He won the Bridgestone and then proceeded to miss the cut in the next 2 events. Then he won last week at the Barclays. If that pattern continues this week, that would mean that Singh will not make the cut or at least play poorly. If this week shows that trend continuing, maybe Singh is getting a little tired and needs rest between his tournaments. Let's watch and see. Hopefully, that is not the case. I would like to see him power through the end of the season playing well.

Then I am also going to pass on Pettersson. I just don't have a good feeling of him playing well even though he did win two weeks ago in North Carolina at the Wyndham.

So continuing on with my picks, I will pick the next 4 players in the CLi list: Garcia Mickelson, Furyk and Wi. Garcia, Mickelson and Furyk are strong work horses at this event. They are almost assured to make the cut. As for Wi, he is just playing well.

For my final pick, I am going to go down to 8th place in the CLi list and pick Allenby. He has played well in this event, not finishing out of the top 20 the 4 times he has played the event. Then leading up to this tournament he has not placed outside of the top 4 in the last 30 days, which includes the last 4 tournament he has played. He has played 4 weeks straight leading up to this tournament. Hopefully he will not tire out this week.

So the Tour Outsider picks for the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship are:

Rank Player CLi 1 S Sergio Garcia 15.20 2 S Phil Mickelson 16.00 3 S Jim Furyk 20.70 4 S Charlie Wi 21.50 5 S Robert Allenby 22.90

The Tour Insider's (Dave Shedloski) picks are:

• 1 Vijay Singh
• 2 Sergio Garcia
• 3 Adam Scott
• 4 Phil Mickelson
• 5 Ben Curtis

We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Garcia and Mickelson.

 

Tour Outsider: Barclays Classic Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Barclays Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 S Padraig Harrington 11.35 MC MC 92 65 $0 2 S Sergio Garcia 18.00 2 2 6 25 $616,000 3 S Phil Mickelson 19.30 19 39 21 25 $84,840 4 S Jim Furyk 30.85 12 11 36 25 $129,000 5 S Stuart Appleby 34.30 19 11 36 45 $84,840

This week is a lot better than the results I have had the past 4 weeks. It is nice to see a top ten finish, with Garcia placing second --- losing in a playoff to Singh. Then the next 3 players in my pick list all placed in the top 20. That is very nice to see.

The only negative mark on the picks score card this week was that 1 player missed the cut: Harrington. No one thought that Harrington was going to miss the cut. Most people thought he was going to actually place well. So to see him miss the cut this week was a surprise to say the least.

Here are the results of the Tour Insider (Dave Shedloski) picks.

• 1 Phil Mickelson 19 | $84,840
• 2 Jim Furyk | 12 | $129,000
• 3 Steve Stricker | 19 | $84,840
• 4 Justin Leonard | 7 | $203,700
• 5 Justin Rose 135 (WD) | $0

Here is the comparison between the Tour Outsider and Tour Insider picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$914,680	$502,380	TO
Avg Rank	28.8	38.4	TO
Made Cut	4	4	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider year to date is, 17 wins to the Tour Outsider, 14 wins to the Tour Insider, and 5 draws.

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The CLi top 15 looked like this (see below).

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 S Rich Beem 10.90 55 49 44 8 $15,680 2 S Padraig Harrington 11.35 MC MC 92 65 $0 3 S Sergio Garcia 18.00 2 2 6 25 $616,000 4 S Phil Mickelson 19.30 19 39 21 25 $84,840 5 S Brian Davis 24.55 38 49 61 14 $26,600 6 S Vijay Singh 28.60 1 2 21 25 $1,260,000 7 S Carl Pettersson 30.15 48 49 44 65 $17,400 8 S Steve Flesch 30.35 MC MC 73 65 $0 9 S Jim Furyk 30.85 12 11 36 25 $129,000 10 S Camilo Villegas 32.60 MC MC 73 65 $0 11 S Ian Poulter 33.25 MC MC 92 89 $0 12 S Retief Goosen 34.25 MC MC 103 89 $0 13 S Stuart Appleby 34.30 19 11 36 45 $84,840 14 S Billy Mayfair 36.15 31 49 21 25 $39,700 15 S Tim Clark 38.05 38 39 14 25 $26,600

 

Tour Outsider: Barclays Classic

This is week the US PGA Tour starts it's Fed Ex Cup Playoff Tournaments. The first tournament in the "playoff" is the Barclays Classic.

Let's look at the Golf CLi and see who the top 15 players are for the tournament ranked by the CLi figure.

Rank Player CLi 1 S Rich Beem 10.90 2 S Padraig Harrington 11.35 3 S Sergio Garcia 18.00 4 S Phil Mickelson 19.30 5 S Brian Davis 24.55 6 S Vijay Singh 28.60 7 S Carl Pettersson 30.15 8 S Steve Flesch 30.35 9 S Jim Furyk 30.85 10 S Camilo Villegas 32.60 11 S Ian Poulter 33.25 12 S Retief Goosen 34.25 13 S Stuart Appleby 34.30 14 S Billy Mayfair 36.15 15 S Tim Clark 38.05

The first thing I noticed in the CLi rankings for this tournament is that no player has a CLi figure of less than 10. This basically tells me that the CLi does not think that any one player has a very high chance of a guaranteeing a top 10. That is not a good sign when I am using the CLi to pick which players will play well this week. That said, let's start picking.

With the CLi figures being higher than normal, I am going to pick across the board.

I am going to pass on Beem, pick Harrington, Garcia and Mickelson. Harrington won the British two weeks ago, Garcia came in second and Mickelson likes to be on the big stage at the Barclays.

Then I am going down the list to pick Furyk and Appleby. Furyk likes playing in New York, especially when the venue is close to New York City. Appleby is just a strong competitor and should guarantee me a player that will make the cut. Hopefully he will do even better than just making the cut.

So the Tour Outsider picks for the Barclays Classic are:

Rank Player CLi 1 S Padraig Harrington 11.35 2 S Sergio Garcia 18.00 3 S Phil Mickelson 19.30 4 S Jim Furyk 30.85 5 S Stuart Appleby 34.30

The Tour Insider's (Dave Shedloski) picks are:

• 1 Phil Mickelson
• 2 Jim Furyk
• 3 Steve Stricker
• 4 Justin Leonard
• 5 Justin Rose

We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Mickelson and Furyk.

 

Tour Outsider: Wyndham Championship Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Wyndham Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 S Eric Axley 6.55 41 13 45 30 $18,870 2 S Dean Wilson 13.80 69 73 61 11 $10,149 3 S Brian Davis 15.00 WD WD WD 76 $0 4 S Billy Mayfair 17.95 78 52 29 30 $9,486 5 S Ken Duke 27.15 60 62 45 7 $11,067

Am still in a rut with my picks. This week my highest pick was Axley with a 41st place finish. My average rank for my picks was just over 80. That figure is above the 70-cut line, which is never good. Shedloski is probably going to wipe me out this week to keep his winning ways going.

The one bright spot faded after Brian Davis withdrew in the second round. Before he withdrew, I had all 5 of my players "making the cut". I like when all my picks make the cut.

Here are the results of the Tour Insider (Dave Shedloski) picks.

• 1 Brandt Snedeker 69 | $10,149
• 2 David Toms | 41 | $18,870
• 3 Ken Duke | 60 | $11,067
• 4 Paul Casey | 26 | $40,673
• 5 Zach Johnson 26 | $40,673

Here is the comparison between the Tour Outsider and Tour Insider picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$49,572	$121,432	TI
Avg Rank	80.8	44.4	TI
Made Cut	4	5	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Tour Insider won Made Cut category for the clean sweep of all three categories.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider year to date is, 16 wins to the Tour Outsider, 14 wins to the Tour Insider, and 5 draws.

Shedloski is catching up with me. Now he is only 2 wins away from pulling into a tie. This is making the picks game more interesting between the two of us.

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The CLi top 15 looked like this (see below).

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 S Eric Axley 6.55 41 13 45 30 $18,870 2 S Dean Wilson 13.80 69 73 61 11 $10,149 3 S Brian Davis 15.00 WD WD WD 76 $0 4 S Billy Mayfair 17.95 78 52 29 30 $9,486 5 S Steve Marino 19.15 53 41 12 7 $11,774 6 S Tom Pernice Jr 19.40 26 34 18 50 $40,673 7 S Joe Ogilvie 20.60 41 47 61 76 $18,870 8 S Richard S Johnson 21.45 53 52 61 30 $11,774 9 S Jason Gore 23.05 66 52 45 30 $10,608 10 S Ryan Palmer 23.45 MC MC 142 145 $0 11 S Bob Tway 23.70 41 41 29 89 $18,870 12 S Tim Herron 26.45 MC MC 122 50 $0 13 S Ken Duke 27.15 60 62 45 7 $11,067 14 S John Huston 27.65 WD WD WD 89 $0 15 S Brandt Jobe 28.25 MC MC 99 89 $0

 

Tour Outsider: Wyndham Championship

This is a calming week for the US PGA Tour. After the final major last week in Detroit, Michigan, the US circuit will head to North Carolina to enjoy some serenity to play the Wyndham Championship.

Let's look at the Golf CLi and see who the top 15 players are for the tournament ranked by the CLi figure.

Rank Player CLi 1 S Eric Axley 6.55 2 S Dean Wilson 13.80 3 S Brian Davis 15.00 4 S Billy Mayfair 17.95 5 S Steve Marino 19.15 6 S Tom Pernice Jr 19.40 7 S Joe Ogilvie 20.60 8 S Richard S Johnson 21.45 9 S Jason Gore 23.05 10 S Ryan Palmer 23.45 11 S Bob Tway 23.70 12 S Tim Herron 26.45 13 S Ken Duke 27.15 14 S John Huston 27.65 15 S Brandt Jobe 28.25

This week I am going to go with the top 4 in the CLi rankings. Then, for my 5th pick I am going to go with Ken Duke. He played well last week in the US PGA Championship and has been playing well the last couple of months as a whole.

So the Tour Outsider picks for the Wyndam Championship are:

Rank Player CLi 1 S Eric Axley 6.55 2 S Dean Wilson 13.80 3 S Brian Davis 15.00 4 S Billy Mayfair 17.95 13 S Ken Duke 27.15

The Tour Insider's (Dave Shedloski) picks are:

• 1 Brandt Snedeker
• 2 David Toms
• 3 Ken Duke
• 4 Paul Casey
• 5 Zach Johnson

We have 1 player in common in this tournament: Duke.

 

Tour Outsider: PGA Championship Review

It is now time to review the picks for the PGA Championship to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 S Vijay Singh 16.60 MC MC 105 90 $2,500 2 S Chad Campbell 19.20 MC MC 105 90 $2,500 3 S Hunter Mahan 21.15 MC MC 149 147 $2,500 4 S Phil Mickelson 23.75 7 13 14 8 $231,250 5 S Robert Allenby 34.45 31 47 59 63 $38,825

Ugh, another week with multiple players missing the cut. The past 4-5 weeks have not been good to me in regards to picking players that stay for the weekend to finish out a tournament.

Congrats for Shedloski picking a winner in Harrington.

Here are the results of the Tour Insider (Dave Shedloski) picks.

• 1 Phil Mickelson 7 | $231,250
• 2 Vijay Singh | 105 (MC) | $2,500
• 3 Jim Furyk | 29 | $47,550
• 4 Padraig Harrington | 1 | $1,350,000
• 5 Davis Love III 105 (MC) | $2,500

Here is the comparison between the Tour Outsider and Tour Insider picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$277,575	$1,634,100	TI
Avg Rank	79.4	49.4	TI
Made Cut	2	3	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Tour Insider won Made Cut category for the clean sweep of all three categories.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider year to date is, 16 wins to the Tour Outsider, 13 wins to the Tour Insider, and 5 draws.

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The CLi top 15 looked like this (see below).

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 S Kenny Perry 11.80 WD WD WD 136 $0 2 S Ken Duke 13.75 13 18 7 3 $137,250 3 S Vijay Singh 16.60 MC MC 105 90 $2,500 4 S Chad Campbell 19.20 MC MC 105 90 $2,500 5 S Hunter Mahan 21.15 MC MC 149 147 $2,500 6 S Tommy Armour III 22.55 MC MC 105 136 $2,500 7 S Phil Mickelson 23.75 7 13 14 8 $231,250 8 S Anthony Kim 23.95 55 39 26 8 $15,750 9 S Stewart Cink 24.75 MC MC 95 75 $2,500 10 S Briny Baird 29.90 42 22 14 14 $24,500 11 S Heath Slocum 31.15 MC MC 95 61 $2,500 12 S Robert Karlsson 31.85 20 22 26 1 $78,900 13 S Graeme McDowell 33.20 15 13 35 52 $107,060 14 S Lee Westwood 33.45 MC MC 125 109 $2,500 15 S Robert Allenby 34.45 31 47 59 63 $38,825

 

Tour Outsider: PGA Championship

This week offers up the final major of the year. All tours around the world will look to Detroit, Michigan to see how their players will fair in the US PGA Championship.

Let's look at the Golf CLi and see who the top 15 players are for the tournament ranked by the CLi figure.

Rank Player CLi 1 S Kenny Perry 11.80 2 S Ken Duke 13.75 3 S Vijay Singh 16.60 4 S Chad Campbell 19.20 5 S Hunter Mahan 21.15 6 S Tommy Armour III 22.55 7 S Phil Mickelson 23.75 8 S Anthony Kim 23.95 9 S Stewart Cink 24.75 10 S Briny Baird 29.90 11 S Heath Slocum 31.15 12 S Robert Karlsson 31.85 13 S Graeme McDowell 33.20 14 S Lee Westwood 33.45 15 S Robert Allenby 34.45

In looking at the Golf CLi rankings, this is a tough pick this week.

Kenny Perry is first in the list, and has been playing well lately. However, I think he is tired out and has already accomplished his goal of making the Ryder Cup team. And he does play well at PGA Championship venues. However, since he is tired both physically and mentally, I am going to pass on him.

Then you have Ken Duke showing up second in the Golf CLi rankings. He played well in his first PGA Championship last year (placed 18th) and has placed no higher than 18th in this past 3 starts. However, he doesn't have much experience in majors, having only played in 3 of them (2007 PGA Championship, 2007 and 2006 U.S. Open Championships). So, I am going to pass over Duke as well.

I don't normally pass over the first player, much less the first two players, in the Golf CLi rankings. So, it will be interesting to see if that hurts me when looking at the results come next Monday.

I will then pick the next 3 players in the list: Singh (who won last week at Bridgestone), Campbell (who plays well at the PGA and is playing well of late), and Mahan. Out of these 3, Mahan is the one that is a question mark for most. He doesn't have a lot of experience in majors, but he is playing well of late and has a very solid head on his shoulders. Hopefully, he will use his head and be patient this week to make a strong showing.

For my 4th pick, I need to pick Mickelson. He is the highest ranked player in the field, and without Tiger in the field, he looks to capitalize on adding another major to his resume.

For my final pick, I am going to go all the way down to the 15th spot and pick Allenby. There is not much difference in the CLi figures for the players ranked 10th through 15th in the CLi rankings. So the CLi is saying that those players all have around the same probability of playing well this week (i.e. placing 35th or better in this case).

So the Tour Outsider picks for the PGA Championship are:

Rank Player CLi 1 S Vijay Singh 16.60 2 S Chad Campbell 19.20 3 S Hunter Mahan 21.15 4 S Phil Mickelson 23.75 5 S Robert Allenby 34.45

The Tour Insider's (Dave Shedloski) picks are:

• 1 Phil Mickelson
• 2 Vijay Singh
• 3 Jim Furyk
• 4 Padraig Harrington
• 5 Davis Love III

We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Mickelson and Singh.

 

Tour Outsider: Legends Reno-Tahoe Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Legends Reno-Tahoe Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 S Tim Herron 4.45 43 34 33 54 $9,620 2 S Joe Ogilvie 6.40 21 6 8 28 $28,162 3 S Bob Estes 8.85 49 25 6 19 $7,485 4 S Scott McCarron 11.35 MC MC 77 107 $0 5 S Kevin Na 18.60 11 25 24 38 $69,000

As with the previous couple of weeks, my picks didn't place in the top 10 and I had at least one player missed the cut. However, looking on the bright side, I am on the upward swing here in terms of getting better. I just wish I had no players miss the cut, and had 1 or 2 players place in the top 10. Maybe that will happen next week in the year's final major (the US PGA Championship).

Here are the results of the Tour Insider (Dave Shedloski) picks.

• 1 John Rollins 2 | $264,000
• 2 Ben Crane | 29 | $19,950
• 3 Chris Riley | 132 (WD) | $0
• 4 Will MacKenzie | 132 (DNS) | $0
• 5 Brian Davis 2 | $264,000

Here is the comparison between the Tour Outsider and Tour Insider picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$114,267	$547,950	TI
Avg Rank	40.2	59.4	TO
Made Cut	4	3	TO
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider. Even with two players withdrawing, Shedloski pulled in more than $500k. That is nice work. Too bad he had two players withdraw.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Tour Outsider won Made Cut category.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider year to date is, 16 wins to the Tour Outsider, 12 wins to the Tour Insider, and 5 draws.

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The CLi top 15 looked like this (see below).

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 S Tim Herron 4.45 43 34 33 54 $9,620 2 S Joe Ogilvie 6.40 21 6 8 28 $28,162 3 S Bob Estes 8.85 49 25 6 19 $7,485 4 S John Merrick 10.30 8 4 2 2 $87,000 5 S Scott McCarron 11.35 MC MC 77 107 $0 6 S Patrick Sheehan 12.10 53 20 41 54 $6,980 7 S Michael Allen 12.20 43 34 21 6 $9,620 8 S Brian Davis 13.65 2 2 2 2 $264,000 9 S Charles Warren 13.95 58 25 12 6 $6,630 10 S Jeffrey Overton 17.75 37 55 24 1 $13,200 11 S Alexander Cejka 18.00 MC MC 86 83 $0 12 S Kevin Na 18.60 11 25 24 38 $69,000 13 S Chris Riley 18.75 WD WD WD 128 $0 14 S Nicholas Thompson 19.15 MC MC 77 38 $0 15 S Carlos Franco 21.35 14 10 12 6 $48,000

 

Tour Outsider: Bridgestone Invitational Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Bridgestone Invitational to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 S Jim Furyk 6.40 27 18 12 6 $60,000 2 S Kenny Perry 9.15 66 64 53 73 $35,750 3 S Stewart Cink 14.40 43 31 7 6 $46,600 4 S Sergio Garcia 15.25 36 23 35 20 $52,000 5 S Robert Allenby 15.50 20 33 35 49 $71,000

For a second week in a row, I have several players that missed the cut. Not good. Plus, there were no players in my picks that ended up on the top 5. My best result was with Furyk, who placed 14th.

Here are the results of the Tour Insider (Dave Shedloski) picks.

• 1 Stewart Cink 43 | $46,600
• 2 Phil Mickelson | 4 | $310,00
• 3 Rory Sabbatini | 27 | $60,000
• 4 Jim Furyk | 27 | $60,000
• 5 Kenny Perry 66 | $35,750

Here is the comparison between the Tour Outsider and Tour Insider picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$265,350	$512,350	TI
Avg Rank	38.4	33.4	TI
Made Cut	5	5	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Total Earnings category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Avg Rank category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Made Cut category was a draw.....because there was no cut in this tournament.

This tournament overall was won by the Tour Insider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider year to date is, 15 wins to the Tour Outsider, 12 wins to the Tour Insider, and 5 draws.

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The CLi top 15 looked like this (see below).

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 S Jim Furyk 6.40 27 18 12 6 $60,000 2 S Kenny Perry 9.15 66 64 53 73 $35,750 3 S Stewart Cink 14.40 43 31 7 6 $46,600 4 S Sergio Garcia 15.25 36 23 35 20 $52,000 5 S Robert Allenby 15.50 20 33 35 49 $71,000 6 S Rod Pampling 18.75 56 59 29 20 $40,000 7 S Chris DiMarco 18.80 12 6 18 6 $111,000 8 S Lucas Glover 20.55 63 68 65 34 $37,000 9 S Hunter Mahan 21.85 10 11 12 49 $133,000 10 S Justin Leonard 22.55 20 18 18 6 $71,000 11 S Ian Poulter 22.75 16 11 18 34 $82,625 12 S Vijay Singh 24.00 1 1 1 2 $1,350,000 13 S David Toms 24.20 48 54 59 60 $44,250 14 S Padraig Harrington 24.35 20 38 59 20 $71,000 15 S Peter Lonard 24.55 6 11 3 20 $220,000

 

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