Tour Outsider: Honda Classic

This week starts the US PGA Tour's "Florida Swing" with the players landing in Palm Beach Gardens (Florida) to play the Honda Classic.

Let's look at the Golf CLi and see who the top 15 players are for the tournament ranked by the CLi figure.

Rank Player CLi 1 Boo Weekley 4.90 2 Luke Donald 7.40 3 Steve Marino 11.25 4 Brian Gay 13.05 5 Chad Campbell 16.40 6 Ben Crane 18.05 7 Robert Allenby 18.65 8 Charlie Wi 18.65 9 Mark Wilson 19.15 10 John Merrick 22.70 11 Justin Leonard 25.15 12 Bill Haas 25.65 13 David Toms 27.20 14 Arron Oberholser 27.70 15 John Senden 32.20

This week was hard to pick. All of the top 5 players in the CLi look good and are playing well coming into this week. However, there are two players outside of the top 5 that I like in the Honda because they are good wind players. Those two players are Allenby and Leonard.

Which player or players should I eliminate in the top 5 to get to Allenby and/or Leonard?

After some thought, I have decided to remove Brian Gay and add Allenby. I will go ahead and pass on Leonard even though he could easily play well this week. Gay could easily have another strong week as well. However, he could also be overwhelmed with the activities that will now engulf him after he won for the first time last week in Mexico.

So the Tour Outsider picks for the Honda Classic:

Rank Player CLi 1 Boo Weekley 4.90 2 Luke Donald 7.40 3 Steve Marino 11.25 4 Chad Campbell 16.40 5 Robert Allenby 18.65

The Tour Insider's (Dave Shedloski) picks are:

• 1 Angela Cabrera
• 2 Justin Leonard
• 3 Boo Weekley
• 4 Camilo Villegas
• 5 Justin Rose

We have 1 player in common in this tournament: Boo Weekley.

 

Tour Outsider: Mayakoba Classic Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Mayakoba Classic to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 Parker McLachlin 9.55 42 39 37 9 $11,900 2 Stephen Marino 15.05 2 2 4 9 $378,000 3 Brian Gay 16.15 1 1 2 6 $630,000 4 Alejandro Canizares 21.70 48 61 64 59 $8,797 5 Briny Baird 31.55 12 31 37 20 $64,500

Just like with the Accenture Match Play picks, this has been a good week. In the Accenture Match Play, I picked the top two players. Here in the Mayakoba Classic, I also picked the top 2 players with Gay and Marino. It is even better that all five of my picks made the cut. There are no "MC" (missed cut) indicators in the list of above. That tops off a nice week with two tournaments. Hopefully that should be good enough to take another point from Sheloski. If so, that would mean I got pulled 2 points in this week that had two US PGA Tour sanctioned tournaments.

On a side note, it is nice to see Brian Gay win his first US PGA Tour event. I can remember when he was playing college events for the University of Florida in the late 1980s / early 1990s. Back then, I was struggling to make the playing squad for the SMU golf team, while Brian was easily making the top 5 for UF team.

Here are the results of the Tour Insider (Dave Shedloski) picks.

• 1 Bubba Watson | 128 MC | $0
• 2 Joe Durant | 12 | $64,500
• 4 Ken Duke | 132 WD | $0
• 3 Jose Coceres | 69 | $7,035
• 5 Olin Browne | 85 MC | $0

Here is the comparison between the Tour Outsider and Tour Insider picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$1,093,197	$71,535	TO
Avg Rank	21.0	85.2	TO
Made Cut	5	3	TO
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Tour Outsider won the Total Earnings category.

The Tour Outsider won the Avg Rank category.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Outsider for the sweep of all three categories.

This tournament was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider year to date is, 6 wins to the Tour Outsider, 2 wins to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

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The CLi top 15 looked like this (see below).

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 Parker McLachlin 9.55 42 39 37 9 $11,900 2 Stephen Marino 15.05 2 2 4 9 $378,000 3 Brian Gay 16.15 1 1 2 6 $630,000 4 Daisuke Maruyama 16.95 MC MC MC MC $0 5 Fred Funk 20.90 63 39 64 95 $7,420 6 Alejandro Canizares 21.70 48 61 64 59 $8,797 7 Doug Labelle II 21.80 48 61 37 40 $8,797 8 Matt Kuchar 25.30 3 3 5 20 $203,000 9 Brent Geiberger 29.00 MC MC MC MC $0 10 Joe Ogilvie 31.25 12 9 37 40 $64,500 11 Briny Baird 31.55 12 31 37 20 $64,500 12 John Merrick 32.50 3 3 1 1 $203,000 13 Paul Stankowski 35.50 12 20 50 59 $64,500 14 Peter Lonard 43.15 7 6 13 20 $112,875 15 James Driscoll 43.90 MC MC MC MC $0

 

Tour Outsider: Accenture Match Play Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Accenture Match Play to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd5 Actual 1 Tiger Woods 14.00 1 $1,350,000 2 Adam Scott 19.40 17 $90,000 3 Rory Sabbatini 22.70 33 $40,000 4 Stewart Cink 24.30 2 $800,000 5 Nick O'Hern 26.40 17 $90,000

This was a good week. I picked the top 2 players that played in the final match: Woods and Cink. At the beginning of the week I said this would be a crap shoot. Well, the "shoot" went well to say the least.

Here are the results of the Tour Insider (Dave Shedloski) picks.

• 1 Phil Mickelson | 17 | $90,000
• 2 Tiger Woods | 1 | $1,350,000
• 4 Ernie Els | 33 | $40,000
• 3 David Toms | 17 | $90,000
• 5 Luke Donald | 17 | $90,000

Here is the comparison between the Tour Outsider and Tour Insider picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$2,370,000	$1,660,000	TO
Avg Rank	14.0	17.0	TO
Made Cut	5	5	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Tour Outsider won the Total Earnings category.

The Tour Outsider won the Avg Rank category.

The Made Cut category was a draw as each of our 5 players made the cut...because there was not a cut in this tournament.

This tournament was won by the Tour Outsider.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider year to date is, 5 wins to the Tour Outsider, 2 wins to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

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The CLi top 15 looked like this (see below).

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd5 Actual 1 Tiger Woods 14.00 1 $1,350,000 2 Phil Mickelson 18.80 17 $90,000 3 Adam Scott 19.40 17 $90,000 4 Henrik Stenson 21.50 3 $575,000 5 Rory Sabbatini 22.70 33 $40,000 6 Stewart Cink 24.30 2 $800,000 7 Stuart Appleby 25.50 9 $130,000 8 K.J. Choi 25.80 5 $260,000 9 Nick O'Hern 26.40 17 $90,000 10 Padraig Harrington 26.50 17 $90,000 11 Luke Donald 27.00 17 $90,000 12 Steve Stricker 28.40 9 $130,000 13 Zach Johnson 29.00 33 $40,000 14 Justin Leonard 29.20 4 $475,000 15 Robert Allenby 29.60 33 $40,000

 

Tour Outsider: Mayakoba Classic

As mentioned in my previous post, the US PGA Tour goes in two separate ways this week. This post is for the second part of the tour which heads south of the border to play in Mexico in the Mayakoba Classic (to view the picks comparisons for the other half, the Accenture Match Play, click here).

Let's look at the Golf CLi and see who the top 15 players are for the tournament ranked by the CLi figure.

Rank Player CLi 1 Parker McLachlin 9.55 2 Stephen Marino 15.05 3 Brian Gay 16.15 4 Daisuke Maruyama 16.95 5 Fred Funk 20.90 6 Alejandro Canizares 21.70 7 Doug Labelle II 21.80 8 Matt Kuchar 25.30 9 Brent Geiberger 29.00 10 Joe Ogilvie 31.25 11 Briny Baird 31.55 12 John Merrick 32.50 13 Paul Stankowski 35.50 14 Peter Lonard 43.15 15 James Driscoll 43.90

There is only one player with a CLi figure below 10 and that is Mclachlin. So that means this field is a little more wide open for people that have a chance to win than with the other tournaments we have seen played this year. So that means I will need to go down the top 15 and think through the picks a little more.

So the Tour Outsider picks for the Mayakoba Classic:

Rank Player CLi 1 Parker McLachlin 9.55 2 Stephen Marino 15.05 3 Brian Gay 16.15 4 Alejandro Canizares 21.70 5 Briny Baird 31.55

The Tour Insider's (Dave Shedloski) picks are:

• 1 Bubba Watson
• 2 Joe Durant
• 3 Ken Duke
• 4 Jose Coceres
• 5 Olin Browne

We have no players in common in this tournament.

 

Tour Outsider: Accenture Match Play

The US PGA Tour goes in two separate ways this week, with the big name players in Arizona to play the Accenture Match Play (the second part of the tour heads south of the border to play in Mexico; tomorrow I will post an entry for the picks of the Mayakoba Classic).

Let's look at the Golf CLi and see who the top 15 players are for the tournament ranked by the CLi figure.

Rank Player CLi 1 Tiger Woods 14.00 2 Phil Mickelson 18.80 3 Adam Scott 19.40 4 Henrik Stenson 21.50 5 Rory Sabbatini 22.70 6 Stewart Cink 24.30 7 Stuart Appleby 25.50 8 K.J. Choi 25.80 9 Nick O'Hern 26.40 10 Padraig Harrington 26.50 11 Luke Donald 27.00 12 Steve Stricker 28.40 13 Zach Johnson 29.00 14 Justin Leonard 29.20 15 Robert Allenby 29.60

As the CLi figures show, there is no player that is a for sure pick to play well....not even Tiger Woods, as all of the CLi figures are above 10. That is the case with most match play events. A player can beat the best player in the world on any given day once. It is a lot harder to beat the world's best in stroke play over 4 days as the world's best will rise to the top more often when given more chances.

So this week, I am going to go with a random crap shoot shot of the top 15 in the CLi figures....with some of my knowledge of the players no less. Hopefully that knowledge will be worth more than the peanuts I am eating.

So the Tour Outsider picks for the Accenture Match Play:

Rank Player CLi 1 Tiger Woods 14.00 2 Adam Scott 19.40 3 Rory Sabbatini 22.70 4 Stewart Cink 24.30 5 Nick O'Hern 26.40

The Tour Insider's (Dave Shedloski) picks are:

• 1 Phil Mickelson
• 2 Tiger Woods
• 3 Ernie Els
• 4 David Toms
• 5 Luke Donald

This week we have one player in common: Woods.

 

Tour Outsider: Northern Trust Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Northern Trust Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 Adam Scott 5.95 14 29 38 62 $96,100 2 Rory Sabbatini 6.65 44 41 13 49 $21,080 3 Phil Mickelson 7.35 1 1 1 5 $1,116,000 4 Anthony Kim 8.35 MC MC 119 75 $0 5 Padraig Harrington 19.95 3 7 9 14 $359,600

This week I had a winner in Mickelson. Actually, both Shedloski and I had a winner with Mickelson. Hopefully my other picks out did his, including my pick of Harrington who placed 3rd.

Here are the results of the Tour Insider (Dave Shedloski) picks.

• 1 Adam Scott | 14 | $96,100
• 2 Phil Mickelson | 1 | $1,116,000
• 4 Robert Allenby | 7 | $186,775
• 3 Steve Elkington | 79 MC | $0
• 5 Fred Couples | 31 | $36,766

Here is the comparison between the Tour Outsider and Tour Insider picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$1,592,780	$1,435,641	TO
Avg Rank	36.2	26.4	TI
Made Cut	4	4	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	DRAW

The Tour Outsider won the Total Earnings category.

The Tour Insider won the Avg Rank category.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

This tournament was a draw overall.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider year to date is, 4 wins to the Tour Outsider, 2 wins to the Tour Insider, and 1 draw.

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The CLi top 15 looked like this (see below).

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 Adam Scott 5.95 14 29 38 62 $96,100 2 Rory Sabbatini 6.65 44 41 13 49 $21,080 3 Phil Mickelson 7.35 1 1 1 5 $1,116,000 4 Anthony Kim 8.35 MC MC 119 75 $0 5 Lee Westwood 11.35 MC MC 126 90 $0 6 Trevor Immelman 17.45 MC MC 87 56 $0 7 Charles Howell III 18.65 55 54 30 33 $14,074 8 Fred Funk 19.45 70 54 58 68 $12,152 9 Padraig Harrington 19.95 3 7 9 14 $359,600 10 Robert Allenby 23.70 7 23 2 22 $186,775 11 K.J. Choi 26.25 7 7 9 1 $186,775 12 Stuart Appleby 27.65 7 4 13 14 $186,775 13 Chad Campbell 28.55 11 13 4 3 $142,600 14 Steve Elkington 28.90 MC MC 79 75 $0 15 Jim Furyk 28.95 MC MC 112 125 $0

 

Tour Outsider: Northern Trust Open

The US PGA Tour stays in California this week to play the Northern Trust Open.

Let's look at the Golf CLi and see who the top 15 players are for the tournament ranked by the CLi figure.

Rank Player CLi 1 Adam Scott 5.95 2 Rory Sabbatini 6.65 3 Phil Mickelson 7.35 4 Anthony Kim 8.35 5 Lee Westwood 11.35 6 Trevor Immelman 17.45 7 Charles Howell III 18.65 8 Fred Funk 19.45 9 Padraig Harrington 19.95 10 Robert Allenby 23.70 11 K.J. Choi 26.25 12 Stuart Appleby 27.65 13 Chad Campbell 28.55 14 Steve Elkington 28.90 15 Jim Furyk 28.95

The top 4 players in the CLi rankings all have CLi figures below 10, so will go with them. Then will go further down the list and pick Harrington, as I need a player that will make the cut first and then place well second (i.e. a player that is almost guaranteed to make the cut and earn a paycheck this week).

So the Tour Outsider picks for the Northern Trust Open:

Rank Player CLi 1 Adam Scott 5.95 2 Rory Sabbatini 6.65 3 Phil Mickelson 7.35 4 Anthony Kim 8.35 5 Padraig Harrington 19.95

The Tour Insider's (Dave Shedloski) picks are:

• 1 Adam Scott
• 2 Phil Mickelson
• 3 Robert Allenby
• 4 Steve Elkington
• 5 Fred Couples

This week we have two players in common: Scott and Mickelson.

 

Tour Outsider: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am Review

It is now time to review the picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 Phil Mickelson 5.10 MC 121 52 42 $0 2 Mike Weir 8.15 14 45 63 135 $87,360 3 J.B. Holmes 8.35 MC 61 2 5 $12,540 4 Jim Furyk 12.15 14 25 103 42 $87,360 5 Kevin Sutherland 14.05 MC 149 169 149 $0

This week 3 players missed the cut. That is not good. It didn't help that J.B. Holmes went from 2nd to 61st in the 3rd round to miss the cut. As well, it didn't help that Mickelson made an 11 on the 14th hole during his 3rd round. However, that is what to expect when you are playing at Pebble Beach and on the Monterey peninsula.

Here are the results of the Tour Insider (Dave Shedloski) picks.

• 1 Jim Furyk | 14 | $87,360
• 2 Phil Mickelson | 121 MC | $0
• 4 Pat Perez | 24 | $44,400
• 3 Steve Flesch | 180 DNS| $0
• 5 Bubba Watson | 180 DNS | $0

Here is the comparison between the Tour Outsider and Tour Insider picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$187,260	$131,760	TO
Avg Rank	71.8	103.8	TO
Made Cut	2	2	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Tour Outsider won the Total Earnings category.

The Tour Outsider won the Avg Rank category.

The Made Cut category was a draw. This one hurts as I essentially had a two player "head start" before the tournament even started as Flesch and Watson (two of Shedloski's picks) were not even in the field. Even with that "head start" all I could "mustard" was a draw in this category....hmmm, not pretty this week.

The Tour Outsider won this tournament.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider year to date is, 4 wins to the Tour Outsider, 2 wins to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

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The CLi top 15 looked like this (see below).

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 Phil Mickelson 5.10 MC 121 52 42 $0 2 Mike Weir 8.15 14 45 63 135 $87,360 3 J.B. Holmes 8.35 MC 61 2 5 $12,540 4 Daniel Chopra 11.60 MC 94 63 15 $0 5 Jim Furyk 12.15 14 25 103 42 $87,360 6 Kevin Sutherland 14.05 MC 149 169 149 $0 7 Padraig Harrington 22.70 14 19 38 61 $87,360 8 Brandt Snedeker 25.75 58 45 86 84 $13,320 9 Vijay Singh 26.50 2 1 12 26 $648,000 10 Ryan Moore 27.45 48 45 21 42 $15,264 11 Doug Labelle II 28.70 MC 71 63 26 $0 12 Fredrik Jacobson 29.80 14 5 12 84 $87,360 13 Jonathan Byrd 29.90 MC 94 127 135 $0 14 Robert Gamez 29.90 MC 83 116 108 $0 15 Tom Pernice Jr 30.55 34 37 63 26 $28,400

 

Tour Outsider: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am

The US PGA Tour is in California this week to play the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am.

Let's look at the Golf CLi and see who the top 15 players are for the tournament ranked by the CLi figure.

Rank Player CLi 1 Phil Mickelson 5.10 2 Mike Weir 8.15 3 J.B. Holmes 8.35 4 Daniel Chopra 11.60 5 Jim Furyk 12.15 6 Kevin Sutherland 14.05 7 Arron Oberholser 20.60 8 Padraig Harrington 22.70 9 Brandt Snedeker 25.75 10 Vijay Singh 26.50 11 Ryan Moore 27.45 12 Doug Labelle II 28.70 13 Fredrik Jacobson 29.80 14 Jonathan Byrd 29.90 15 Robert Gamez 29.90

This week I am going to go with the top 3 players in the CLi list, as they have a CLi figure below 10. Then I am going to skip Chopra and pick Furyk and Sutherland to round out my five players.

I am skipping over Chopra because he is tired, as he has played in 4 tournaments in the past 5 weeks. He played 3 good rounds at the FBR Open last week before ballooning to a 77 in the final round. However, Chopra has played well at the AT&T in the past, so it is hard to pass over him. In the end, I am thinking his energy level will wan a little as the AT&T is a tournament with long rounds as the pros are paired with amateurs.

So the Tour Outsider picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am:

Rank Player CLi 1 Phil Mickelson 5.10 2 Mike Weir 8.15 3 J.B. Holmes 8.35 4 Jim Furyk 12.15 5 Kevin Sutherland 14.05

The Tour Insider's (Dave Shedloski) picks are:

• 1 Jim Furyk
• 2 Phil Mickelson
• 3 Pat Perez
• 4 Steve Flesch
• 5 Bubba Watson

This week we have two players in common: Mickelson and Furyk.

It is interesting that Shedloski picked Flesch and Watson when both of those players are not even in the field at this time. Maybe he knows something that others don't....being that he is an "insider".

 

Tour Outsider: FBR Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the FBR Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 Justin Leonard 9.90 43 6 25 58 $18,720 2 Mike Weir 16.00 43 36 37 58 $18,720 3 Kenny Perry 17.00 17 12 1 7 $90,000 4 Hunter Mahan 17.40 MC MC 79 58 $0 5 Stewart Cink 17.60 MC MC 71 89 $0

My five player team didn't do too well this week. If the tournament had ended after the 3rd round, I have been looking pretty good except for the two players that missed the cut. However, as it turned out, all three of my players that made the cut played poorly in the final round to drop my team's results dramatically.

Here are the results of the Tour Insider (Dave Shedloski) picks.

• 1 Aaron Baddeley | 78 MC | $0
• 2 Phil Mickelson | 2 | $648,000
• 4 Jeff Quinney | 17 | $90,000
• 3 Rocco Mediate | 50 | $14,610
• 5 Vijay Singh | 70 MC | $0

Here is the comparison between the Tour Outsider and Tour Insider picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$127,440	$752,610	TI
Avg Rank	50.2	43.4	TI
Made Cut	3	3	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Tour Insider won the Total Earnings category.

The Tour Insider won the Avg Rank category.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

The Tour Insider won this tournament.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider year to date is, 3 wins to the Tour Outsider, 2 wins to the Tour Insider, and 0 draws.

The difference this week was how my team played the final round compared to the way that Shedloski's team played the final round. My team moved down a combined 49 places in the final round. Shedloski's team moved up a combined 25 places in the final round. That is a net loss of 74 places just in the final round. Ouch.

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The CLi top 15 looked like this (see below).

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 Justin Leonard 9.90 43 6 25 58 $18,720 2 Mike Weir 16.00 43 36 37 58 $18,720 3 Camilo Villegas 16.20 34 23 1 3 $28,400 4 Kenny Perry 17.00 17 12 1 7 $90,000 5 Hunter Mahan 17.40 MC MC 79 58 $0 6 Stewart Cink 17.60 MC MC 71 89 $0 7 Heath Slocum 18.60 MC MC 79 102 $0 8 Ryuji Imada 19.80 WD WD WD 122 $0 9 Steve Stricker 19.80 MC MC 108 89 $0 10 J.B. Holmes 20.00 1 1 1 13 $1,080,000 11 Phil Mickelson 22.40 2 6 17 13 $648,000 12 Fred Funk 23.60 54 32 48 32 $13,740 13 Charles Howell III 24.50 25 32 10 7 $46,800 14 Vijay Singh 24.60 MC MC 71 77 $0 15 Joe Durant 26.20 68 44 48 102 $12,240

 

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