Tour Outsider: Children's Miracle Network Classic

The US PGA Tour heads to Disney World for the Children's Miracle Network Classic. It is the last regular season event for the US PGA Tour, and the last event that I will be making picks until 2008 rolls around.

Let's look at the Golf CLi and see who the top 15 players are for the tournament ranked by the CLi figure.

Rank Player CLi 1 Tim Clark 5.50 2 Cameron Beckman 7.00 3 Mark Calcavecchia 10.00 4 Lucas Glover 13.30 5 Scott Verplank 15.80 6 Ryan Moore 16.35 7 Jesper Parnevik 16.35 8 Stewart Cink 16.85 9 Marco Dawson 17.25 10 Heath Slocum 18.20 11 Briny Baird 18.75 12 Daniel Chopra 20.00 13 Bill Haas 20.05 14 Sean O'Hair 20.45 15 Nick Watney 21.70

I will stick with the top 5 in the CLi rankings to make it simple this week, even though I would have liked to have dipped down to the 6th player in the list: Ryan Moore. Maybe next time. Just will keep it simple this week.

So the Tour Outsider picks for the Children's Miracle Network Classic:

Rank Player CLi 1 Tim Clark 5.50 2 Cameron Beckman 7.00 3 Mark Calcavecchia 10.00 4 Lucas Glover 13.30 5 Scott Verplank 15.80

The Tour Insider's (Dave Shedloski) picks are:

• 1 Lucas Glover
• 2 Tim Clark
• 3 Scott Verplank
• 4 Joe Durant
• 5 Frank Lickliter

This week we have three players in common: Glover, Clark, and Verplank.

 

Tour Outsider: Ginn sur Mer Classic at Tesoro Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Ginn sur Mer Classic at Tesoro to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 Justin Leonard 1.25 26 18 38 66 $31,275 2 Jesper Parnevik 3.25 68 38 56 47 $9,135 3 Tim Clark 4.00 WD WD WD WD $0 4 Heath Slocum 4.50 MC MC 74 47 $0 5 Lucas Glover 7.75 23 26 16 31 $43,200

Tim Clark ended up withdrawing before the tournament started, but I couldn't change my picks as that would not have been fair to Shedloski. In any event, both of us included him in our picks, so it was a wash.

Here are the results of the Tour Insider (Dave Shedloski) picks.

• 1 Sean O'Hair | 5 | $158,063
• 2 Mark Calcavecchia | 132 (WD) | $0
• 4 Robert Allenby | 108 (MC) | $0
• 3 Joe Durant | 39 | $18,000
• 5 Tim Clark | 132 (WD) | $0

Here is the comparison between the Tour Outsider and Tour Insider picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$83,610	$176,063	TI
Avg Rank	64.4	83.2	TO
Made Cut	3	2	TO
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Tour Insider won the Total Earnings category.

The Tour Outsider won the Avg Rank category.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Tour Outsider won this tournament, even while losing the total earnings category and even though the average rank was close to the cut line (not good). Both of us had bad weeks, but I ended up having a better bad week to pull it out this week. With this win, and only one more tournament left in the 2007 US PGA Tour season, it means I have one for the year.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider to date is, 14 wins to the Tour Outsider, 10 wins to the Tour Insider, and 4 draws.

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The CLi top 15 looked like this (see below).

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 Justin Leonard 1.25 26 18 38 66 $31,275 2 Jesper Parnevik 3.25 68 38 56 47 $9,135 3 Heath Slocum 4.50 MC MC 74 47 $0 4 Robert Allenby 6.75 MC MC 109 96 $0 5 Johnson Wagner 7.00 39 50 56 66 $18,000 6 Lucas Glover 7.75 23 26 16 31 $43,200 7 Sean O'Hair 8.50 5 4 4 6 $158,063 8 Mathias Gronberg 8.75 MC MC 74 111 $0 9 Cameron Beckman 9.00 5 7 23 20 $158,063 10 Carl Pettersson 9.25 MC MC 86 31 $0 11 Chris Stroud 10.00 12 11 16 20 $91,125 12 Steve Flesch 10.50 51 26 30 6 $10,733 13 Kent Jones 11.00 16 33 23 12 $67,500 14 Fredrik Jacobson 12.25 2 4 11 31 $396,000 15 Ryan Armour 13.75 34 58 56 47 $23,220

 

Tour Outsider: Ginn sur Mer Classic at Tesoro

The US PGA Tour heads back to the east coast for the Ginn sur Mer Classic at Tesoro.

Let's look at the Golf CLi and see who the top 15 players are for the tournament ranked by the CLi figure.

Rank Player CLi 1 Justin Leonard 1.50 2 Tim Clark 4.00 3 Jesper Parnevik 4.00 4 Heath Slocum 5.25 5 Robert Allenby 8.25 6 Johnson Wagner 8.25 7 Lucas Glover 9.00 8 Sean O'Hair 9.75 9 Mathias Gronberg 10.25 10 Cameron Beckman 10.50 11 Carl Pettersson 10.50 12 Steve Flesch 11.25 13 Chris Stroud 12.00 14 Kent Jones 12.75 15 Pat Perez 12.75

I am going to stick with the top 4 in the CLi: Leonard, Clark, Parnevik (he is playing at home this week as he lives in nearby Jupiter, Florida), and Slocum.

Then will skip over Allenby and Wagner to get to Glover. Glover hasn't played in the past 4 weeks except in the President's Cup. That could be a positive or a negative. I will take it as a positive. He is rested and the President's Cup experience should get him going this week before he winds down for the season. He also likes playing in Florida, which should help his chances this week.

So the Tour Outsider picks for the Ginn sur Mer Classic:

Rank Player CLi 1 Justin Leonard 1.50 2 Tim Clark 4.00 3 Jesper Parnevik 4.00 4 Heath Slocum 5.25 5 Lucas Glover 9.00

The Tour Insider's (Dave Shedloski) picks are:

• 1 Sean O'Hair
• 2 Mark Calcavecchia
• 3 Robert Allenby
• 4 Joe Durant
• 5 Tim Clark

This week we have one player in common: Clark.

 

Tour Outsider: Fry's Electronics Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Fry's Electronics Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 Justin Leonard 2.00 6 6 26 22 $151,250 2 Steve Flesch 5.75 27 38 26 22 $33,281 3 Bo Van Pelt 6.25 44 31 42 61 $16,000 4 Mathias Gronberg 8.50 35 21 26 22 $22,583 5 Charley Hoffman 9.50 MC MC 129 124 $0

Just had one player miss the cut, that was Hoffman. He came in last place out of the players that played both of the first two rounds. He wasn't a good pick this week. Hopefully the results from the other 4 players will pull me through this week.

Here are the results of the Tour Insider (Dave Shedloski) picks.

• 1 Phil Mickelson | 75 (MC) | $0
• 2 Aaron Baddeley | 86 (MC) | $0
• 4 Bob May | 70 | $9,800
• 3 Ben Curtis | 132 (WD) | $0
• 5 David Duval | 109 (MC) | $0

Here is the comparison between the Tour Outsider and Tour Insider picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$223,115	$9,800	TO
Avg Rank	48.0	94.4	TO
Made Cut	4	1	TO
Outcome	--	--	TO

The Tour Outsider won the Total Earnings category.

The Tour Outsider won the Avg Rank category.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Outsider.

The Tour Outsider won this tournament with a sweep of all 3 categories. Even though I didn't have a great week, Shedloski had a very bad week. That helped with the sweep. Shedloski only had one player make the cut for him, and that player placing last in the players that did make the cut.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider to date is, 13 wins to the Tour Outsider, 10 wins to the Tour Insider, and 4 draws.

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The CLi top 15 looked like this (see below).

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 Justin Leonard 2.00 6 6 26 22 $151,250 2 John Mallinger 5.25 70 49 33 80 $9,800 3 Steve Flesch 5.75 27 38 26 22 $33,281 4 George McNeill 5.75 16 9 33 41 $82,500 5 Bo Van Pelt 6.25 44 31 42 61 $16,000 6 Mathias Gronberg 8.50 35 21 26 22 $22,583 7 Robert Garrigus 9.50 MC MC 119 61 $0 8 Charley Hoffman 9.50 MC MC 129 124 $0 9 Bill Haas 10.25 51 43 66 61 $12,150 10 J.J. Henry 12.00 MC MC 99 41 $0 11 Cameron Beckman 12.50 35 28 66 109 $22,583 12 Dean Wilson 13.75 25 43 42 61 $42,000 13 Mathew Goggin 19.00 MC MC 87 109 $0 14 Robert Allenby 19.25 MC MC 76 61 $0 15 Mark Calcavecchia 21.25 MC MC 119 80 $0

 

Tour Outsider: Fry's Electronics Open

The US PGA Tour heads to Phoenix for the second time this year for the Fry's Electronics Open.

Let's look at the Golf CLi and see who the top 15 players are for the tournament ranked by the CLi figure.

Rank Player CLi 1 Justin Leonard 2.00 2 John Mallinger 5.25 3 Steve Flesch 5.75 4 George McNeill 5.75 5 Bo Van Pelt 6.25 6 Mathias Gronberg 8.50 7 Robert Garrigus 9.50 8 Charley Hoffman 9.50 9 Bill Haas 10.25 10 J.J. Henry 12.00 11 Cameron Beckman 12.50 12 Dean Wilson 13.75 13 Mathew Goggin 19.00 14 Robert Allenby 19.25 15 Mark Calcavecchia 21.25

I am going to go with Leonard, as plays well in the desert and is coming off a win in the Valero Texas Open two weeks ago.

Will pass on Mallinger even though he has a low CLi (5.25). I just don't feel comfortable in picking him for some reason.

Then will pick Flesch as I think he still has some good golf in him this season.

Even though McNeill won last week, and could easily play well this week, will pass on him. The main reason is that I think it will be hard for him to focus this week after having won for the first time in Vegas last week. However, if he did win here, it would be a Fry's double, which would be rather cool.

Then will pick Van Pelt and Gronberg and pass on Garrigus to get to Hoffman. Hoffman was thought to be a good pick last week in Vegas, however, he missed the cut by a stroke. Let's see if he can turn it around this week in Phoenix.

So the Tour Outsider picks for the Fry's Electronics Open:

Rank Player CLi 1 Justin Leonard 2.00 2 Steve Flesch 5.75 3 Bo Van Pelt 6.25 4 Mathias Gronberg 8.50 5 Charley Hoffman 9.50

The Tour Insider's (Dave Shedloski) picks are:

• 1 Phil Mickelson
• 2 Aaron Baddeley
• 4 Bob May
• 3 Ben Curtis
• 5 David Duval

This week we have no players in common.

 

Tour Outsider: Frys.com Open in Las Vegas Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Frys.com Open in Las Vegas to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 Charley Hoffman 4.45 MC MC 85 25 $0 2 Bill Haas 6.55 21 27 13 25 $36,533 3 Scott Verplank 10.55 MC MC 85 87 $0 4 Daniel Chopra 11.30 44 36 32 8 $12,093 5 Charles Howell III 18.10 MC MC 85 119 $0

Ouch, another hit in the missed cut category, with 3 of my picks missing the cut. All 3 of the players that missed the cut missed the cut by one stroke.

This was a tournament that I felt rather confident in making picks. However, it didn't show in my results. Ugh.

Here are the results of the Tour Insider (Dave Shedloski) picks.

• 1 Mike Wier | 10 | $96,000
• 2 Daniel Chopra | 44 | $12,093
• 4 Charley Hoffman | 84 (MC) | $0
• 3 Jason Gore | 7 | $124,667
• 5 Scott Verplank | 84 (MC) | $0

Here is the comparison between the Tour Outsider and Tour Insider picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$48,627	$232,760	TI
Avg Rank	63.4	45.8	TI
Made Cut	2	3	TI
Outcome	--	--	TI

The Tour Insider won the Total Earnings category.

The Tour Insider won the Avg Rank category.

The Made Cut category was won by the Tour Insider.

The Tour Insider won this tournament with a sweep of all 3 categories.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider to date is, 12 wins to the Tour Outsider, 10 wins to the Tour Insider, and 4 draws.

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The CLi top 15 looked like this (see below).

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 Charley Hoffman 4.45 MC MC 85 25 $0 2 Bill Haas 6.55 21 27 13 25 $36,533 3 Scott Verplank 10.55 MC MC 85 87 $0 4 Daniel Chopra 11.30 44 36 32 8 $12,093 5 Shigeki Maruyama 17.20 62 54 45 61 $8,520 6 Tim Petrovic 17.65 MC MC 85 103 $0 7 Charles Howell III 18.10 MC MC 85 119 $0 8 Nick Watney 18.70 59 27 6 25 $8,800 9 Dan Forsman 19.25 MC MC 113 103 $0 10 Troy Matteson 20.50 MC MC 113 61 $0 11 Dean Wilson 21.95 MC MC 101 103 $0 12 Steve Lowery 23.60 30 19 7 8 $23,250 13 Rich Beem 24.85 38 36 22 3 $16,800 14 Bo Van Pelt 27.25 5 4 22 8 $152,000 15 Charles Warren 29.50 MC MC 101 39 $0

 

Tour Outsider: Frys.com Open in Las Vegas

The US PGA Tour heads to Vegas for the Frys.com Open in Las Vegas.

Let's look at the Golf CLi and see who the top 15 players are for the tournament ranked by the CLi figure.

Rank Player CLi 1 Charley Hoffman 4.45 2 Bill Haas 6.55 3 Scott Verplank 10.55 4 Daniel Chopra 11.30 5 Shigeki Maruyama 17.20 6 Tim Petrovic 17.65 7 Charles Howell III 18.10 8 Nick Watney 18.70 9 Dan Forsman 19.25 10 Troy Matteson 20.50 11 Dean Wilson 21.95 12 Steve Flesch 22.10 13 Steve Lowery 23.60 14 Rich Beem 24.85 15 Bo Van Pelt 27.25

Am going with the top 4 in the CLi list. Then am going to skip over Maruyama and Petrovic to pick Howell. Feel that Howell is due. Let's hope that is good thinking.

So the Tour Outsider picks for the Frys.com Open in Las Vegas are:

Rank Player CLi 1 Charley Hoffman 4.45 2 Bill Haas 6.55 3 Scott Verplank 10.55 4 Daniel Chopra 11.30 5 Charles Howell III 18.10

The Tour Insider's (Dave Shedloski) picks are:

• 1 Mike Weir
• 2 Daniel Chopra
• 4 Charley Hoffman
• 3 Jason Gore
• 5 Scott Verplank

This week we have 3 players in common: Chopra, Hoffman, and Verplank.

 

Tour Outsider: Valero Texas Open Review

It is now time to review the picks for the Valero Texas Open to see how the results turned out.

Here are the results of the Tour Outsider (my) picks.

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 Charley Hoffman 6.35 11 10 15 23 $99,000 2 Steve Flesch 10.00 MC MC 87 82 $0 3 Heath Slocum 17.60 5 24 8 50 $180,000 4 Bart Bryant 19.05 33 68 26 12 $24,863 5 Chad Campbell 21.50 15 8 8 12 $72,000

This week was a little better. Just had one negative and that was Flesch missing the cut. He was suppose to be a low risk pick and with little chance of missing the cut. In the second round he had trouble bringing it in and ended up missing the cut by two strokes.

Here are the results of the Tour Insider (Dave Shedloski) picks.

• 1 Anthony Kim | 44 | $13,986
• 2 Steve Flesch | 87 (MC) | $0
• 4 Justin Leonard | 13 | $65,625
• 3 J.J. Henry | 1 | $810,000
• 5 Rich Beem | 71 | $8,820

Shedloski had another very nice week. Like last week, he picked a winner (Leonard). Nice going.

Here is the comparison between the Tour Outsider and Tour Insider picks.

	Tour Outsider	Tour Insider	Winner
Total Earnings	$375,863	$898,431	TI
Avg Rank	30.2	43.2	TO
Made Cut	4	4	DRAW
Outcome	--	--	DRAW

The Tour Insider won the Total Earnings category.

The Tour Outsider won the Avg Rank category.

The Made Cut category was a draw.

This tournament was a draw.

The overall results between the Tour Outsider and the Tour Insider to date is, 12 wins to the Tour Outsider, 9 wins to the Tour Insider, and 4 draws.

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The CLi top 15 looked like this (see below).

Rank Player CLi Rank Earnings Rd4 Rd3 Rd2 Rd1 Actual 1 Charley Hoffman 6.35 11 10 15 23 $99,000 2 Steve Flesch 10.00 MC MC 87 82 $0 3 Heath Slocum 17.60 5 24 8 50 $180,000 4 Bart Bryant 19.05 33 68 26 12 $24,863 5 Chad Campbell 21.50 15 8 8 12 $72,000 6 Dean Wilson 23.30 6 10 15 32 $140,850 7 Anthony Kim 24.05 44 39 36 101 $13,986 8 Kent Jones 26.60 MC MC 79 32 $0 9 Mathew Goggin 27.00 26 50 49 50 $31,950 10 Daisuke Maruyama 28.30 33 39 36 82 $24,863 11 Vaughn Taylor 28.35 MC MC 100 82 $0 12 Alexander Cejka 29.70 26 32 36 101 $31,950 13 Bo Van Pelt 30.20 11 10 26 50 $99,000 14 Bob Estes 30.50 37 18 26 67 $19,350 15 Mark Wilson 31.55 MC MC 127 125 $0

 

Tour Outsider: Valero Texas Open

The US PGA Tour heads to Texas for the Valero Texas Open in San Antonio.

Let's look at the Golf CLi and see who the top 15 players are for the tournament ranked by the CLi figure.

Rank Player CLi 1 Charley Hoffman 6.35 2 Steve Flesch 10.00 3 Heath Slocum 17.60 4 Bart Bryant 19.05 5 Chad Campbell 21.50 6 Tommy Armour III 22.05 7 Pat Perez 23.15 8 Dean Wilson 23.30 9 Anthony Kim 24.05 10 Kent Jones 26.60 11 Mathew Goggin 27.00 12 Daisuke Maruyama 28.30 13 Vaughn Taylor 28.35 14 Alexander Cejka 29.70 15 Bo Van Pelt 30.20

Let's see if I can do better than I have the past three weeks. The past 3 weeks of picks have not been good. :-( Hopefully I can break the three week losing streak

I am going to go with the top 5 players in the CLi list this week.

I would have liked to pick Anthony Kim this week as he played well here last year. However, I could not decide which player in the list before him to drop. Bryant might have been a good player to drop in this case. However, he is a veteran player that is good to make the cut, and I need to make sure all five players make the cut this week. Kim has a higher risk of missing the cut, even though he does have a higher chance to place better than Bryant on average.

In the end, I decided to go with a less risky group of players this week to try to get back on the winning track. Hoffman is my most risky pick this week. However, he does have a low CLi, and the lowest for that matter. It is hard to go against a 1 digit CLi (6.35).

So the Tour Outsider picks for the Valero Texas Open are:

Rank Player CLi 1 Charley Hoffman 6.35 2 Steve Flesch 10.00 3 Heath Slocum 17.60 4 Bart Bryant 19.05 5 Chad Campbell 21.50

The Tour Insider's (Dave Shedloski) picks are:

• 1 Anthony Kim
• 2 Steve Flesch
• 4 Justin Leonard
• 3 J.J. Henry
• 5 Rich Beem

This week we have 1 player in common: Flesch.

 

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