Thursday, January 2, 2014

Taking a Hiatus

Thank you for being a regular reader, as it has been enjoyable to receive comments from and have a dialogue with you all.

At this time I am taking hiatus from the Tour Outsider blog.  I am not sure when I will be coming back and posting on a regular basis.


Wednesday, October 9, 2013

Frys.com Open

After several weeks off, the US PGA Tour starts the 2013-2014 season in San Martin, California at the Frys.com Open.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Frys.com Open.

# Player CLi 
1  Gary Woodland 9.15
2  Bryce Molder 16.00
3  Rocco Mediate 19.60
4  Billy Horschel 21.05
5  J.J. Henry 22.00
6  Jason Kokrak 23.45
7  David Hearn 23.70
8  Nicholas Thompson 24.40
9  Jonas Blixt 25.30
10  Patrick Reed 28.30
11  Russell Knox 29.25
12  Steven Bowditch 30.35
13  Will MacKenzie 30.45
14  Charles Howell III 30.55
15  John Merrick 32.70

I am late in my post and am still needing to work on other activities (i.e. can't spend much time on this post), so I am just going to list the 5 players that I have picked...in other words, not providing an explanation for my picks.

Below are my 5 picks for the Frys.com Open:

# Player CLi 
1  Gary Woodland 9.15
2  Bryce Molder 16.00
3  Billy Horschel 21.05
4  J.J. Henry 22.00
5  Jason Kokrak 23.45

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Gary Woodland
  2. Billy Horschel
  3. Hideki Matsuyama
  4. John Peterson
  5. Jonas Blixt
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Frys.com Open

We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Woodland and Horschel.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Frys.com Open:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA1)Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
525%25%
Number of Days Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA2)Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
455%5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA3)Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
620%20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

TOUR Championship

This week the US PGA Tour has its final FedEx Playoff event, the BMW Championship.  The event is being held at East Lake Golf Course in Atlanta, Georgia, with only 30 players in the field (which makes it a little easier to select 5 players who will play well this week).

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the TOUR Championship.

# Player CLi 
1  Jim Furyk 3.70
2  Zach Johnson 8.25
3  Tiger Woods 8.65
4  Sergio Garcia 8.70
5  Jason Day 9.25
6  Justin Rose 10.80
7  Steve Stricker 11.20
8  Nick Watney 11.60
9  Adam Scott 11.65
10  Hunter Mahan 12.10
11  Brandt Snedeker 12.60
12  Luke Donald 12.85
13  Bill Haas 13.20
14  Henrik Stenson 13.35
15  Gary Woodland 13.75

I am making it easy on myself and will be sticking with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings.  They all have CLi figures less than 10, which is a good sign that the CLi has figured out they have a fairly good probability of playing well this week.

Furyk (analysis) was leading going into the final round last week at the BMW Championship before placing 3rd behind Zach Johnson and Nick Watney.  He shot 59 in the tournament, so he is playing well currently.  He placed 7th in this tournament last year, didn't make the championship in in 2011, and won the event in 2010.

Johnson (analysis) won last week, beating out Fuyrk in the last round, and has finished in the top 8 in 6 of the last 7 tournaments he has played in.  So he is also playing well at this time.  As for the TOUR Championship, he has faired in the middle pack 4 of the 6 times he has played in the tournament.  He has a 9th place finish in 2010 and a 2nd placed finish in 2007.

Woods (analysis) has been playing inconsistently this year compared to his past play.  However, he is playing better than most players.  He finished 11th last week at the BMW Championship, and was 2nd several weeks ago in the Barclays.  East Lake tends to treat him well.  He has finished 8th (2012), 2nd (2009), 1st (2007), 2nd (2005), and 2nd (2004) the last 5 times he has played in this event.

Garcia (analysis) finished 15th last year in this week, but had a 2nd place finish in 2008 and a 4th place finish in 2007.  He has not necessarily placed great in the tournaments leading up to this week, but he has been hitting it well and playing consistent -- especially for him.  His best finish this past month was 4th at the Deustche U.S. Bank Championship.

Day (analysis) finished 6th in this event the last time he played in it (2011) and finished 4th last week at the BMW Championship.  So has showed some good play recently and has had prior success at this event.

Below are my 5 picks for the TOUR Championship:

# Player CLi 
1  Jim Furyk 3.70
2  Zach Johnson 8.25
3  Tiger Woods 8.65
4  Sergio Garcia 8.70
5  Jason Day 9.25

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Hunter Mahan
  2. Brandt Snedeker
  3. Luke Donald
  4. Jason Day
  5. Zach Johnson
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: TOUR Championship

We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Day and Johnson.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the TOUR Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA1)Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
525%25%
Number of Days Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA2)Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
305%5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA3)Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
420%20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

BMW Championship

After a week off, the US PGA Tour is in Chicago to play the 3rd FedEx Playoff event: the BMW Championship.  The event was traditionally played at Cog Hill in Chicago, however, has moved courses the past several years -- last year it was at Crooked Stick in Indiana and this year it is at Conway Farms in Chicago.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the BMW Championship.

# Player CLi 
1  Jim Furyk 5.80
2  Tiger Woods 6.70
3  Justin Rose 7.30
4  Zach Johnson 8.90
5  Steve Stricker 9.60
6  Adam Scott 10.00
7  John Huh 11.70
8  Matt Kuchar 13.40
9  Jason Dufner 14.30
10  Sergio Garcia 14.60
11  Graham Delaet 16.40
12  Rory McIlroy 17.70
13  Phil Mickelson 18.00
14  Gary Woodland 18.20
15  Keegan Bradley 21.40

As with the last tournament, the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship, the top 5 players have CLi figures below 10 -- the 6th player even has a CLi of 10, which makes it difficult to pass up on that player (Adam Scott).  This is a good sign that the CLi has a good indication of who has the highest probability of playing well.  However, I am still going to stick with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings.

Furyk (analysis) hasn't finished worse than 22nd in this event since 2003, with an average rank of 8.0.  He won the event in 2005, and finished 2nd and 3rd in 2009 and 2008 respectively.  He finished 9th in the event last year.  Since the beginning of August, Furyk has played in 4 tournaments, and finished in the top 10 in 3 of them: 6th - Barclays Classic, 2nd - PGA Championship, and 9th - Bridgestone Invitational.  He finished 22nd in the other tournament -- the Deutsch U.S. Bank Championship.

Woods (analysis) might not be playing up to par compared to what the media compares him to.  However, his results have been rather good.  Since August he has won a tournament (Bridgestone Invitational) and finished 2nd in another (Barclays Classic).  In the other two tournament he has played in Since August, he didn't fair as well -- placing 65th (Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship) and 40th (PGA Championship).  It is the uncharacteristic inconsistency that has thrown the media for a loop.  In this event, he tends to play well -- he actually tends to play well in Chicago-area tournaments.  Since 2003, he has won this event 3 times, placed 2nd twice, finished no worse than 15th, and has an average rank of 4.1.

I won't go into details for Rose, Johnson, and Stricker, but you can view their detailed analysis from the following links: Rose - analysis, Johnson - analysis, and Stricker - analysis.  In addition, you can view Scott's analysis for the tournament.

Below are my 5 picks for the BMW Championship:

# Player CLi 
1  Jim Furyk 5.80
2  Tiger Woods 6.70
3  Justin Rose 7.30
4  Zach Johnson 8.90
5  Steve Stricker 9.60

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Justin Rose
  2. Adam Scott
  3. Matt Kuchar
  4. Steve Stricker
  5. Henrik Stenson
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: BMW Championship

We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Rose and Stricker.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the BMW Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA1)Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
520%20%
Number of Days Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA2)Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
3010%10%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA3)Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
420%20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship

This week the US PGA Tour is kicking off the FedEx Playoffs with the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship.

# Player CLi 
1  Tiger Woods 2.95
2  Adam Scott 5.50
3  Jim Furyk 6.50
4  Jason Dufner 7.40
5  Steve Stricker 8.75
6  Zach Johnson 15.65
7  Dustin Johnson 15.85
8  Webb Simpson 16.30
9  Rory McIlroy 18.55
10  Phil Mickelson 20.55
11  Matt Kuchar 20.70
12  Brendan Steele 21.60
13  Bryce Molder 22.70
14  Keegan Bradley 23.50
15  Jerry Kelly 24.70

I am going to stick with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings.  This week the top 5 players have CLi figures below 10, which is a good sign that the CLi has a better indication of who has the highest probability of playing well.

Below are my 5 picks for the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship:

# Player CLi 
1  Tiger Woods 2.95
2  Adam Scott 5.50
3  Jim Furyk 6.50
4  Jason Dufner 7.40
5  Steve Stricker 8.75

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Tiger Woods
  2. Adam Scott
  3. Jim Furyk
  4. Phil Mickelson
  5. Keegan Bradley
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship

We have 3 players in common in this tournament: Woods, Scott, and Furyk.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Deutsche Bank U.S. Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA1)Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
525%25%
Number of Days Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA2)Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
305%5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA3)Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
420%20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Thursday, August 22, 2013

The Barclays

This week the US PGA Tour is kicking off the FedEx Playoffs with The Barclays.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for The Barclays.

# Player CLi 
1  Brian Harman 12.05
2  William McGirt 13.15
3  Dustin Johnson 15.00
4  Brandt Snedeker 16.05
5  Matt Kuchar 16.25
6  Tiger Woods 16.40
7  Jim Furyk 17.30
8  Nicholas Thompson 19.80
9  Rory Sabbatini 20.10
10  Webb Simpson 24.90
11  Gary Woodland 28.30
12  David Hearn 29.20
13  Lee Westwood 29.75
14  Jason Day 30.30
15  Roberto Castro 32.95

I am going to stick with the top 5 players in the CLi rankings (even though the CLi figures are high, with none of the players having a CLi figure less than 10).

Below are my 5 picks for The Barclays:

# Player CLi 
1  Brian Harman 12.05
2  William McGirt 13.15
3  Dustin Johnson 15.00
4  Brandt Snedeker 16.05
5  Matt Kuchar 16.25

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Jason Day
  2. Webb Simpson
  3. Henrik Stenson
  4. Adam Scott
  5. Tiger Woods
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: The Barclays

We have 0 players in common in this tournament.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for The Barclays:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA1)Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
525%25%
Number of Days Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA2)Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
305%5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA3)Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
420%20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Wyndham Championship

This week the US PGA Tour will play the last tournament of the year before the FedEx Playoffs start:  the Wyndham Championship.  The tournament takes place in Greensboro, North Carolina at Sedgefield Country Club.

Below is the list of the top 15 players in the CLi rankings for the Wyndham Championship.

# Player CLi 
1  Jason Bohn 8.70
2  Chad Campbell 11.80
3  Zach Johnson 12.30
4  Bill Haas 20.35
5  J.J. Henry 23.95
6  Richard Lee 24.05
7  Jonathan Byrd 24.85
8  Webb Simpson 25.85
9  Mark Wilson 26.25
10  Brandt Snedeker 27.00
11  Jerry Kelly 27.55
12  Daniel Summerhays 27.65
13  Sergio Garcia 27.75
14  Andres Romero 28.70
15  Chez Reavie 30.75

Below are my 5 picks for the Wyndham Championship:

# Player CLi 
1  Jason Bohn 8.70
2  Chad Campbell 11.80
3  Zach Johnson 12.30
4  Bill Haas 20.35
5  Richard Lee 24.05

Below are the top 5 players in the Power Rankings from Rob Bolton:
  1. Zach Johnson
  2. Webb Simpson
  3. Brandt Snedeker
  4. Bill Haas
  5. Sergio Garcia
Here is a link to Bolton's Power Rankings so that you can read more about his thoughts on his top players in this week's Power Rankings:

Bolton's Power Rankings: Wyndham Championship

We have 2 players in common in this tournament: Johnson and Haas.

Below are the settings for the CLi calculation I used for the Wyndham Championship:

Number of Past Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA1)Earnings Avg Weight (EA1)
525%25%
Number of Days Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA2)Earnings Avg Weight (EA2)
305%5%
Number of Tournaments Looking Back
NumberScoring Avg Weight (SA3)Earnings Avg Weight (EA3)
420%20%

If you don't like the configuration of my CLi calculation, feel free to run your own CLi calculation with your own desired settings by going to golfcli.com.